Southwest Airlines to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Southwest Airlines Co. LUV is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 24.

Southwest Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 67.06%. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news)

Let’s see how things have shaped up for Southwest Airlines this earnings season.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced LUV’s Q2 Performance

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LUV’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 1.92% in the past 60 days to 51 cents per share. Moreover, the consensus mark implies a 12.07% downside from the year-ago actual.

We expect geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures, and persistent inflation to weigh on LUV’s operations and weaken travel demand. The ongoing economic uncertainties and the resultant reduction in consumer and corporate confidence are likely to have hurt the domestic air travel demand.

Escalated labor and airport costs are also likely to have been high, which is likely to have hurt the company’s bottom-line performance in the June quarter. Despite costs on aircraft fuel decreasing year over year, LUV expects to continue experiencing increased cost pressure. It expects CASM, excluding fuel, oil and profit-sharing expenses, and special items, to increase 3.5-5.5% in the second quarter of 2025 from the comparable period in 2024.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LUV’s second-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $7.30 billion, indicating a 0.8% decline year over year. The downside is likely to have been partially offset by improving travel demand and lower fuel prices.

Notably, the southward movement of oil prices bodes well for the bottom-line growth of industry participants. This is because fuel expenses are a significant input cost for the aviation industry. Crude oil is struggling in 2025, with prices sliding to multi-month lows. Tariff concerns, weakening consumer confidence, and the production increase by OPEC+ have all contributed to this downward pressure. Oil prices decreased 6% in the April-June 2025 period.

What Our Model Says About LUV

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Southwest Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Southwest Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -4.39% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present.

Southwest Airlines Co. Price and EPS Surprise

Southwest Airlines Co. price-eps-surprise | Southwest Airlines Co. Quote

Highlights of LUV’s Q1 Earnings

Southwest Airlines reported a first-quarter 2025 loss of 13 cents per share, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 18 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the company had incurred a loss of 36 cents per share.

Revenues of $6.42 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.40 billion. The top line, however, improved 1.6% year over year

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

SkyWest, Inc.SKYW has an Earnings ESP of +3.06% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. SKYW is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 24. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

SkyWest, founded in 1972, is based in St. George and operates regional jets for major U.S. airlines. SKYW is the holding company for SkyWest Airlines, SkyWest Charter and SkyWest Leasing, an aircraft leasing company.

SKYW has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 17.1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SKYW’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.30% upward in the past 60 days. SKYW’s second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 28.5% year over year. 

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has an Earnings ESP of +3.22% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. KNX is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 23.

KNX’s second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 41.67% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KNX’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 2.86% to 34 cents per share in the past 60 days. KNX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), the average beat being 3.25%.

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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