Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
描述
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What is going on here? This strategy is pretty simple. We start by measuring a very long chunk of volume history on BitMEX:XBTUSD 1 hour chart to find out if the current volume is high or low. At 1.0 the indicator is showing we are at 100% of normal historical volume. The blue line is a measure of recent volume! This indicator gets interested when the volume drops below 90% of the regular volume (0.9), and then comes back up over 90%. There's usually a pump of increased price activity during this time. When the 0.9 line is crossed by the blue line, the indicator surveys the last 2 bars of price action to figure out which way we're going, long or short. Green is long. Red is short. To exit the trade we use a 7 period fast ema of the volume crossing under an 11 ema slower period which shows declining interest in the market signifying an end to the pump or dump. The profit factor is quite high with 5x leverage, but historically we see 50% drawdown -- very risky. 1x leverage looks nice and tight with very low drawdown. Play with the inputs to see what matches your own risk profile. I would not recommend taking this into much lower timeframes as trading fees are not included in the profit calculations. Please don't get burned trading on stupid high leverage. This indicator is probably not going to work well on alts, as Bitcoin FOMO build up and behavior is different. This whole indicator is tuned to Bitcoin, and attempts to trade only the meatiest part of the market moves.
Weaknesses: it can sometimes pick to trade the wrong direction if if hits support or resistance and changes direction after a trade is entered. Use a stoploss.
Strengths: It usually gets things right. Historically over 57% right.
W00t. Today -- Trade entry: 7600 long on 5x leverage closed at 7769.5 exit. +11.5% trade.
ahancock
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I'm using this indicator as a basis for my new strategy and thank you for sharing it. I've modified it slightly, you can get better accuracy of trade direction by using a T3MA with 3 length and 0.4 factor and check slope of MA for trade direction. This increases profitable trades and thought id share it with you.
Thanks again for awesome indicator.
Happy trading
ahancock
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The above is mostly applicable for lower 30m+ time-frames
odinofcrypto
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@ahancock I tried replicating what you mention, but I couldn't make the code work... Would you mind sharing the snippet?
ahancock
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@odinofcrypto, I've put my discussed changes into a published script based on this one by which can be found here: uk.tradingview.com/script/AMxhpBej-BitMEX-pump-catcher-MACD/ I've also included a configurable stop loss (percent of leveraged position) and configurable risk limit (percent of equity). Full credit goes to @Jomy for his work!
Jomy
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@ahancock, thanks for sharing your findings. I'll test this out this evening! At some point I go for lower drawdowns over maximum gains, but i'm interested to see what you found.
ahancock
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@Jomy, @odinofcrypto Sorry for the late reply. I actually found a simpler change to reduce the drawdown. The T3MA indicator was ok but using the difference in the MACD is better.
Replace line 32 with the 4 lines below:
macd_fast_length = input(20, title = "MACD - Fast Length", type = input.integer, minval = 1)
macd_slow_length = input(40, title = "MACD - Slow Length", type = input.integer, minval = 1)
These default values work better on the 1 hour timeframe - 62.5% profitable, 50.74% drawdown.
30th June, 23 April are two dates that get a correct entry now.
ahancock
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@ahancock, Can't edit comments. I had the values changed from the default values in the snippet. Use 12, 26 for MACD to increase profit, profitable trades, and reduce drawdown.
odinofcrypto
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@ahancock, appreciate a lot you sharing this. Thank you!