Trend Following Volatility Trail

The Trend Following Volatility Trail is a dynamic trend-following tool that adapts its stop, bias, and zones to real-time volatility and trend strength. Instead of using static ATR multiples like a normal Supertrend or Chandelier Stop, it continuously adjusts itself based on how stretched the market is and how persistent the trend has been.

This makes the system far more reactive during momentum phases and more conservative during consolidation, helping avoid fake flips and late entries.

How It Works
The indicator builds an adaptive trail around a smoothed price basis:

• It starts with a short EMA as the “core trend line.”
  
• It measures volatility expansion versus normal volatility.
  
• It measures trend persistence by reading whether price has been rising or falling consistently.
  
• These two components combine to adjust the ATR multiplier dynamically.
  

As volatility expands or the trend becomes more persistent, the bands widen. When volatility compresses or the trend weakens, the bands tighten.
These adaptive bands form the foundation of the trailing system.

Bull & Bear State Logic
The tool constantly tracks whether price is above or below the adaptive trail:

• Price above the upper trail → Bullish regime
  
• Price below the lower trail → Bearish regime
  

But instead of flipping immediately, it waits for confirmation bars to avoid noise. This greatly reduces whipsaws and keeps the focus on sustained moves.

Once a new regime is confirmed:

1. A coloured cloud appears (bull or bear)
   
2. A label marks the flip point
   
3. Alerts can be triggered automatically
   

Best Uses

• Identifying regime shifts early
  
• Riding sustained trends with confidence
  
• Avoiding choppy markets by requiring confirmation
  
• Using the adaptive cloud as a directional bias layer