DDCA Composite Risk Metric v0.1

2月19日

Dynamic Dollar-Cost Averaging signal — a single 0–1 risk oscillator for Bitcoin cycle positioning.

This indicator combines 19 cross-domain signals into one composite score that tells you when to accumulate and when to distribute. It was built to solve one problem: removing emotion from DCA sizing decisions.

0.0 = Maximum opportunity (buy aggressively)
1.0 = Maximum risk (sell everything)

How It Works

The composite blends four tiers of market data, each answering a different question:

• Macro & Liquidity (35%) — "Is the environment creating cheap prices?" Fed rate direction, global M2 growth, Fed balance sheet, real yields, unemployment trend, DXY dollar strength. When macro is painful, assets are cheap.
• On-Chain (30%) — "Is capitulation happening NOW?" MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Puell Multiple, LTH netflow, hash ribbons. Measures actual blockchain behavior — smart money accumulation vs distribution.
• Technical (25%) — "Does price structure confirm the bottom?" 200-week MA ratio, bull market support band, Pi Cycle top, BTC dominance, log regression band, stablecoin supply ratio.
• Sentiment (10%) — "Is everyone terrified?" Fear & Greed proxy (momentum + volatility + price strength), altcoin breadth.

When all four tiers align near 0 simultaneously — that is the real buy signal. Any single tier at 0 alone just means "conditions are favorable, wait for confirmation."

Key Features

1. Adaptive normalization — Six indicators use rolling 4-year percentile ranking instead of fixed ranges. This solves the critical problem of cycle compression where metrics like MVRV peak at lower absolute values each cycle (10 → 7 → 3.5). The indicator stays equally sensitive whether it is 2017 or 2030.
2. Sigmoid rescaling — Prevents blow-off distortion. The 2021 peak where all 19 indicators maxed simultaneously is compressed naturally, keeping the actionable 0.2–0.8 range responsive.
3. Tier and individual toggles — Disable any tier or any single indicator with one click. Weights automatically renormalize. Build your own blend.
4. Na-safe architecture — If any data source goes offline, that indicator defaults to neutral 0.5 instead of breaking the entire composite. The chart never goes blank.

DDCA Action Bands

• < 0.10 — ALL-IN zone (generational bottom)
• 0.10 – 0.20 — Heavy buy
• 0.20 – 0.28 — Strong buy
• 0.28 – 0.35 — Normal buy (standard DCA)
• 0.35 – 0.75 — HOLD (no action)
• 0.75 – 0.82 — Start selling
• 0.82 – 0.90 — Accelerate selling
• > 0.90 — SELL ALL (cycle top)

Settings

• Composite SMA smoothing — default 7 bars. Increase for less noise, decrease for faster signals.
• Sigmoid center — default 0.42. The raw score that maps to 0.50 output.
• Sigmoid steepness — default 8.0. Higher = sharper transition between zones. Lower = more gradual.
• Show sub-scores — toggle to see individual tier lines for debugging.
• Score table — real-time breakdown of all 19 indicators with traffic-light coloring.

Data Sources

22 request.security() calls: FRED (rates, M2, balance sheet, yields, unemployment), TVC (DXY, bonds), Glassnode & CoinMetrics (market cap, realized cap), IntoTheBlock (hashrate, netflow), Quandl (miner revenue), CryptoCap (dominance, total market cap, stablecoins).
No external API dependencies. Everything runs natively in TradingView.

Based on

Research framework derived from Benjamin Cowen's risk metric methodology and multi-factor cycle analysis. The macro inversion logic follows the principle that tight monetary conditions create cheap assets — the environment where long-term DCA yields the best results.

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." This indicator quantifies exactly how fearful or greedy the market is across 19 dimensions.

Alerts included for all action band crossings: ALL-IN, HEAVY BUY, STRONG BUY, NORMAL BUY, START SELL, ACCEL SELL, SELL ALL.

2月19日

發行說明

Dynamic Dollar-Cost Averaging signal — a single 0–1 risk oscillator for Bitcoin cycle positioning.

This indicator combines 19 cross-domain signals into one composite score that tells you when to accumulate and when to distribute. It was built to solve one problem: removing emotion from DCA sizing decisions.

0.0 = Maximum opportunity (buy aggressively)
1.0 = Maximum risk (sell everything)

How It Works

The composite blends four tiers of market data, each answering a different question:

• Macro & Liquidity (35%) — "Is the environment creating cheap prices?" Fed rate direction, global M2 growth, Fed balance sheet, real yields, unemployment trend, DXY dollar strength. When macro is painful, assets are cheap.
• On-Chain (30%) — "Is capitulation happening NOW?" MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Puell Multiple, LTH netflow, hash ribbons. Measures actual blockchain behavior — smart money accumulation vs distribution.
• Technical (25%) — "Does price structure confirm the bottom?" 200-week MA ratio, bull market support band, Pi Cycle top, BTC dominance, log regression band, stablecoin supply ratio.
• Sentiment (10%) — "Is everyone terrified?" Fear & Greed proxy (momentum + volatility + price strength), altcoin breadth.

When all four tiers align near 0 simultaneously — that is the real buy signal. Any single tier at 0 alone just means "conditions are favorable, wait for confirmation."

Action Bands

Seven symmetric zones centered on 0.50:

1. < 0.25 — ALL-IN (generational bottom — happens 2-3× per cycle)
2. 0.25 – 0.35 — STRONG BUY (3× base position)
3. 0.35 – 0.45 — BUY (1× standard weekly DCA)
4. 0.45 – 0.55 — HOLD (no action — intentionally narrow)
5. 0.55 – 0.65 — SELL (1× base distribution)
6. 0.65 – 0.75 — STRONG SELL (3× base distribution)
7. > 0.75 — ALL-OUT (cycle top — sell everything)

The HOLD zone is only 10% of the range. The indicator pushes you toward action — buy or sell — because sitting still during a cycle is the real risk.

Key Features

1. Adaptive normalization — Six indicators use rolling 4-year percentile ranking instead of fixed ranges. This solves the critical problem of cycle compression where metrics like MVRV peak at lower absolute values each cycle. The indicator stays equally sensitive whether it is 2017 or 2030.
2. Sigmoid rescaling — Prevents blow-off distortion. The 2021 peak where all 19 indicators maxed simultaneously is compressed naturally, keeping the actionable range responsive.
3. Tier and individual toggles — Disable any tier or any single indicator with one click. Weights automatically renormalize. Build your own blend.
4. Hover tooltips — Move your cursor along the curve to see risk value, action band, and all four tier breakdowns at any historical point.
5. Na-safe architecture — If any data source goes offline, that indicator defaults to neutral 0.5 instead of breaking the entire composite. The chart never goes blank.

Settings

• Composite SMA smoothing — default 7 bars. Increase for less noise, decrease for faster signals.
• Sigmoid center — default 0.42. The raw score that maps to 0.50 output.
• Sigmoid steepness — default 8.0. Higher = sharper transition between zones. Lower = more gradual.
• Show sub-scores — toggle to see individual tier lines for debugging.
• Score table — real-time breakdown of all 19 indicators with traffic-light coloring.

Data Sources

22 request.security() calls: FRED (rates, M2, balance sheet, yields, unemployment), TVC (DXY, bonds), Glassnode & CoinMetrics (market cap, realized cap), IntoTheBlock (hashrate, netflow), Quandl (miner revenue), CryptoCap (dominance, total market cap, stablecoins).
No external API dependencies. Everything runs natively in TradingView.

Based on

Research framework derived from Benjamin Cowen's risk metric methodology and multi-factor cycle analysis. The macro inversion logic follows the principle that tight monetary conditions create cheap assets — the environment where long-term DCA yields the best results.

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
This indicator quantifies exactly how fearful or greedy the market is across 19 dimensions.

Alerts included for all action band crossings: ALL-IN, STRONG BUY, BUY, SELL, STRONG SELL, ALL-OUT. Use on daily timeframe with BTCUSD or BTCUSDT for best results.