Apple公司看空
AAPL's Four-Month Triangle May Be Breaking
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Primary Chart: AAPL's Four-Month Triangle with Various Trendlines and VWAPs
SUMMARY:
This analysis will briefly cover some of the broader and longer-term levels for AAPL. If the downtrend continues as it has, and the macroeconomic and interest-rate environment remains challenging for equities, AAPL may reach the levels identified.
AAPL's four-month triangle has formed from the convergence of two trendlines: (1) a downward-sloping trendline from its all-time high to the present (dark blue) and (2) an upward-sloping trendline from the pandemic-crash low in March 2020 to the present (also dark blue). On an arithmetic chart, AAPL appears to have violated this multi-year upward trendline in recent days with a couple closes below the line.
One interesting perspective on the 2020-2022 trendline appears on a logarithmic chart. AAPL has shown a more decisive break of this 2020-2022 up trendline, which appears as an orange line on this Supplementary Chart below:
Supplementary Chart A: Logarithmic Chart with Upward Trendlines from March 2020 low and January 2019 Low
But when multi-month triangles like this break, and when multi-year trendlines like this break, it should be expected this could be a process rather than a quick event, assuming the trendline is valid. In part, this is because multi-year trendlines and multi-month triangles do not break and dissipate easily. The lower trendline of the triangle pattern is a multi-year trendline from the Covid lows to the present. Price does not always just break right through such an important level. On occasion, it can slice right through a level deemed consequential and long-term. But often when encountering a very important longer-term level, price can tag it, then break it repeatedly in both directions, whipsawing above and below the line a few times before following the ultimate direction it will take. Or it can break the line and then retest it from underneath a couple times as well.
Levels of importance below this trendline are the VWAP anchored to the March 2020 low. The anchored VWAP from this 2020 lows is shown in light red. Currently, that VWAP lies at $127.61, but this can change over time due to the dynamic nature of VWAP calculations. Because it is longer-term, it shouldn't change too dramatically in the coming days or weeks unless a very sizeable rally or crash takes place.
Another longer-term anchored VWAP from the January 2019 lows is approximately at 102.45. This level currently coincides with the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally starting at the Covid lows, which lies at 102.71. See Primary Chart.
But before discussing this 2019 anchored VWAP and .618 retracement around $102, price must first break through the .50 retracement of its rally from March 2020 to January 2022. The .50 retracement lies at $118.02.
Another even longer-term trendline can be drawn from the January 2019 low to the present. This trendline intersects with the .618 retracement early next year in January to February 2023 (see the yellow circle on the Primary Chart). This level also coincides with the approximate location of the 2019 anchored VWAP (dark purple)—the current trajectory of this 2019 anchored VWAP looks as if it may run near or through the yellow circle in the next 3-5 months.
Ultimately, this is not intended to be a bold, heroic prediction that AAPL will certaintly reach $127, $118, or $102. If the downtrend structure continues to remain intact, and rallies get sold, then these are viable targets. In short, this is just a technical overview showing that these levels are higher probability targets that could likely be reached if AAPL continues the path of least resistance lower.
Lastly, consider the March 2020 anchored VWAPs discussed in this post and its relationship to the same trendlines discussed except drawn on a logarithmic chart. The 2019-2022 trendline (light blue) coincides with the March 2020 anchored VWAP (or nearly does). This level will be about $127-$130 in 1-3 months. So perhaps this can be both a conservative target or a more intermediate term low in this bear.
Supplementary Chart B: Anchored VWAPs Position Relative to Logarithmic Trendlines
SUMMARY:
- AAPL's longer-term charts show a symmetrical triangle arising from the convergence of a down trendline from January 2022 (dark blue) and an up trendline from March 2020 lows (also dark blue). This triangle appears to be in the process of breaking on arithmetic charts.
- When considering that long-term trendlines don't break easily, price may retest or whipsaw above and below this long-term up trendline (from March 2020 lows) two or more times before the line can finally break decisively.
- The first major level of importance below this 2020-2022 up trendline is the VWAP anchored to the 2020 lows. This VWAP lies at approximately 127.61 today. On a logarithmic chart, this VWAP coincides with a longer-term up trendline in the coming 2-4 months (see Supplementary Chart B below). This is probably the most conservative downside target if the bear market continues to pressure prices lower.
- Another anchored VWAP from the January 2019 lows is approximately at 102.45. This level coincides with the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally starting at the Covid lows, which equals 102.71. See Primary Chart. But before discussing these levels around $102-$103, price must first break through the .50 retracement of its 2.5-year rally from March 2020 to January 2022. The .50 retracement lies at $118.02.
- Another long-term up trendline from the January 2019 low appears on the Primary Chart in light blue. This even longer-term trendline coincides with the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally off the Covid lows and the VWAP anchored to the January 2019 low. If this long-term trendline is tested next year in January or February, it would be about $102-$103, the same level as the VWAP from the January 2019 low and the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally—where the yellow circle appears on the Primary Chart. Could this be where AAPL puts in a lasting bottom at 102-103?
This analysis will briefly cover some of the broader and longer-term levels for AAPL. If the downtrend continues as it has, and the macroeconomic and interest-rate environment remains challenging for equities, AAPL may reach the levels identified.
AAPL's four-month triangle has formed from the convergence of two trendlines: (1) a downward-sloping trendline from its all-time high to the present (dark blue) and (2) an upward-sloping trendline from the pandemic-crash low in March 2020 to the present (also dark blue). On an arithmetic chart, AAPL appears to have violated this multi-year upward trendline in recent days with a couple closes below the line.
One interesting perspective on the 2020-2022 trendline appears on a logarithmic chart. AAPL has shown a more decisive break of this 2020-2022 up trendline, which appears as an orange line on this Supplementary Chart below:
Supplementary Chart A: Logarithmic Chart with Upward Trendlines from March 2020 low and January 2019 Low
But when multi-month triangles like this break, and when multi-year trendlines like this break, it should be expected this could be a process rather than a quick event, assuming the trendline is valid. In part, this is because multi-year trendlines and multi-month triangles do not break and dissipate easily. The lower trendline of the triangle pattern is a multi-year trendline from the Covid lows to the present. Price does not always just break right through such an important level. On occasion, it can slice right through a level deemed consequential and long-term. But often when encountering a very important longer-term level, price can tag it, then break it repeatedly in both directions, whipsawing above and below the line a few times before following the ultimate direction it will take. Or it can break the line and then retest it from underneath a couple times as well.
Levels of importance below this trendline are the VWAP anchored to the March 2020 low. The anchored VWAP from this 2020 lows is shown in light red. Currently, that VWAP lies at $127.61, but this can change over time due to the dynamic nature of VWAP calculations. Because it is longer-term, it shouldn't change too dramatically in the coming days or weeks unless a very sizeable rally or crash takes place.
Another longer-term anchored VWAP from the January 2019 lows is approximately at 102.45. This level currently coincides with the .618 retracement of the 2020-2022 rally starting at the Covid lows, which lies at 102.71. See Primary Chart.
But before discussing this 2019 anchored VWAP and .618 retracement around $102, price must first break through the .50 retracement of its rally from March 2020 to January 2022. The .50 retracement lies at $118.02.
Another even longer-term trendline can be drawn from the January 2019 low to the present. This trendline intersects with the .618 retracement early next year in January to February 2023 (see the yellow circle on the Primary Chart). This level also coincides with the approximate location of the 2019 anchored VWAP (dark purple)—the current trajectory of this 2019 anchored VWAP looks as if it may run near or through the yellow circle in the next 3-5 months.
Ultimately, this is not intended to be a bold, heroic prediction that AAPL will certaintly reach $127, $118, or $102. If the downtrend structure continues to remain intact, and rallies get sold, then these are viable targets. In short, this is just a technical overview showing that these levels are higher probability targets that could likely be reached if AAPL continues the path of least resistance lower.
Lastly, consider the March 2020 anchored VWAPs discussed in this post and its relationship to the same trendlines discussed except drawn on a logarithmic chart. The 2019-2022 trendline (light blue) coincides with the March 2020 anchored VWAP (or nearly does). This level will be about $127-$130 in 1-3 months. So perhaps this can be both a conservative target or a more intermediate term low in this bear.
Supplementary Chart B: Anchored VWAPs Position Relative to Logarithmic Trendlines
註釋
AAPL is retesting the trendline from 2020 lows on an regular arithmetic chart: It will be interesting to see if AAPL can recover back above the trendline in the short term. The post mentioned above that long-term trendlines and multi-month triangles often don't break easily, and it can be a process with headfakes and whipsaws above and below
註釋
After breaking below the 2-year up trendline from 2020 lows, AAPL did in fact recover quickly back above it over the course of a couple of days. See the Primary Chart at the top of this post. AAPL has now had 4 failed breakdowns below this long-term TL. Now AAPL looks to continue a multi-day short-squeeze higher across equity indices.
The original post stated as follows: "When considering that long-term trendlines don't break easily, price may retest or whipsaw above and below this long-term up trendline (from March 2020 lows) two or more times before the line can finally break decisively."
Now that AAPl has temporarily gotten back above the TL, it will be important to watch the nature of the move higher, and whether it appears corrective or impulsive in its totality. My view remains that AAPL has more downside, as does the broader markets, but it's proper to wait for the signal that the next leg lower has begin.
The next time this up TL is tested, it likely will break more easily.
註釋
On a logarithmic chart, though, AAPL's bear bounce could face strong resistance at around $148-$153. See the blue arrow. It will be important for the bulls in the intermediate term whether AAPL can break above this logarithmic TL from 2020 lows. If not, the downtrend may continue to $127 as discussed above, and possibly $102, though that is a longer-term and less certain target.註釋
Whether the logarithmic or linear chart is used, AAPL's rally last week moved it right back into the center of the triangle consolidation. This was recognized as a likely possibility in this original post. While recognizing that price had broken out to the downside from this triangle, the original post stated as follows:"When multi-month triangles like this break, and when multi-year trendlines like this break, it should be expected this could be a process rather than a quick event. . . . In part, this is because multi-year trendlines and multi-month triangles do not break and dissipate easily. The lower trendline of the triangle pattern is a multi-year trendline from the Covid lows to the present. Price does not always just break right through such an important level. On occasion, it can slice right through a level deemed consequential and long-term. But often when encountering a very important longer-term level, price can tag it, then break it repeatedly in both directions, whipsawing above and below the line a few times before following the ultimate direction it will take. Or it can break the line and then retest it from underneath a couple times as well."
This appears to be what is happening as price rallied back into the center of the triangle, and has whipsawed back above the TL from Covid 2020 lows (on both linear and log charts).
註釋
AAPL has broken back through the lower boundary of the major triangle as of this week. After four whipsaws above and below the up TL from Covid 2020 lows, AAPL has fallen decisively back below. Will this time be the charm? Or is another whipsaw in store before the real break?
註釋
Please refer solely to this new November 5, 2022 post for updates on AAPL, if any, in the coming weeks: 
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