Apple sideways or down until March

2021年2月17日

With the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ making new highs Apple has underperformed the market. Looks like AAPL has started a new leg over. Expect some support at $127 until the first week in March. I would expect that this is a leading indicator to a pullback in the market of 8%-12% by mid March. When the most valuable company is down 8% from its all time high and not participating in the continued rally, I see that as a vote of no confidence in the sustained move up to new highs. Disclosure I directly and indirectly own AAPL shares. I currently have a call option for $145 Feb 26th exp. thinking AAPL would catch back up to the market. I am bearish sort term and closing that position for a loss.

2021年2月19日

註釋

There is a thin gap between 123.35 and 123.45 from Dec '20. I would expect that to be an intra day low before closing higher. SPX, ICIX, and DJI have started to roll over. I'm expecting a 4% pull back in DJI to 30200 to 30300 by the March 3rd-5th turn in APPL higher. At that point I expect AAPL will be leading the indexes higher. All speculation. I'm going to set a buy limit order at 123.35 and 123.45. Just a couple of shares as a test.

2021年2月27日

註釋

The DJI made a couple of new highs after my initial analysis, but I still confident in a 4% pull back from highs to and updated 30600 range, which was my upper trend line. ICIX is very close to an 8% pull back from highs as I originally predicted. SPX is at 4% also. I think AAPL has one more intraday move possibly to between $111.49 and $112.59. That was my worse case scenario. AAPL has already broken out downward past the final leg of the FIB fork that it was staying in since late March '20.