Ada awakens from the dead. Proceed with caution.

2022年1月17日

Cardanos recent breakout is being attributed to the upcoming and highly anticipated release of SundaeSwap. SundaeSwap is Cardanos first DEX and could be argued that it is the first real sign of utility on the network. For those that have been in the know for a while, Cardano has had a myriad of projects deployed on its network, all with varying degrees of success. The reason I am approaching this trade with caution is that Cardanos transaction throughput is currently very overwhelmed and with the addition of a DEX, we could see the narrative of "Cardano is a ghost chain" to "Cardano is unstable and slow"

Caradno is planning several network upgrades over the course of 2022 which fixes this so ultimately this is bullish news, but be prepared for FUD to drag down ADA in the coming days.

Still bullish on ADA. Still a great time to buy in the long to mid term. Short term entries could get wrecked here.

2022年1月17日

註釋

In response to a comment here I decided to just add my response to the thesis as it functions as a good addition here.

A lot in play here in a macro viewpoint. All things being equal, BTC is a risk asset and with fed tapering and the cost of capital increasing, investors are doing all they can to de-risk in the short term. BTC has an increased beta to SPX and NDX as of late, meaning that is becoming more and more correlated to traditional equities. So we are playing a serious balancing act with the stock market I think anyone who is calling for directional price targets in either direction is either foolish or miseducated. With that being said, If the market continues to de-risk and take money off the table we could see BTC test its lower bound range of around 35k. What this exactly means for the short term price of ADA is entirely not known but it most certainly won't lead to upward price action. I know people here like to hear price targets so I will say that a .40c ADA seems highly unlikely considering the massive inflows of capital with the coming launch of its DEX. If I absolutely had to give a case for bearish price action, I can see a test to the $1.00-$1.19 range while wicking down below the 1 dollar range briefly.
I think if we continue to see a risk off attitude from investors in the stock market, BTC will continue to feel pain and ADA cannot sustain its bullish run while BTC slides downward. Bollinger Bands on almost all time frames on almost all crypto assets suggest we will see high volatility in the coming days/weeks so I would either approach this by lengthening your time horizon and ROI expectations, or sitting out until the dust settles.
I typically will post updates to my charts if necessary so feel free to add me for any further questions.