ADA seems to be wedged, which way will it go?

Will ADA follow Bitcoin, or blaze it's own path? It's wedged between 2 trend lines, has a square up below, which also matches up with the 786 retracement fib. IOHK virtual summit is coming up, along with Shelley mainet launch. Are people accumulating ADA for staking, or will the big movers bring ADA down once more to buy cheaper?