AERO: Coming in to Refuel… or Crash Land!?

AERO: Coming in to Refuel… or Crash Land!?

📅 Date: May 23, 2025
🧠 Framework: Elliott Wave with Fibonacci structure
🔍 Context: 4H timeframe

🔁 Recap of the Move
AERO rallied off the 0.3465–0.3475 double bottom in what appears to be a clean 5-wave impulsive sequence. The price action respected both structural and Fibonacci guidelines:

Wave 2 and Wave 4 both pulled back to 0.5 retracements.

Wave 3 extended and subdivided with strong momentum, a common characteristic

Wave 5 completed between 0.5 and 0.618 of Wave 3 from the Wave 4 low — a textbook termination zone

Subdivisions within Wave 5 were also visible, including a smaller internal Wave 3 and 5, reinforcing the case for a completed motive wave.

⚠️ Current Price Behavior
Post-impulse, the market is showing signs of correction. This pullback could mark the beginning of a deeper retracement, or it may be the early stages of a new larger-degree impulse if the uptrend continues.

📏 Levels to Watch
Retracement zone: 0.54–0.49 (50–61.8% of the full move)

Upside resumption: Requires a strong bounce from the retrace zone and break of the Wave 5 high

🔮 Outlook
Two scenarios remain on the table:

Bullish: This is a Wave 2 retracement in a larger degree move. If support holds, a strong Wave 3 may follow.

Bearish/Neutral: The 5-wave or 3-wave structure is fully complete, and a deeper correction could be in play.

Confirmation will come through structure, not assumption. Keep watching how price behaves around the key retrace levels.

📣 Trade safe, trade clarity. More updates coming as structure evolves.