ALAB: downward regression

8月30日

Astera Labs has been trading in a downward regression channel. Due to post IPO volatility it is a regression with either two standard deviations (inner green channel), or three standard deviations (outer blue channel). Most of the time the sock popped to the upper bound of two sigma channel (marked ‘2’) it then returned to the regression mean, and retraced roughly at fibo .786, 1.618. 1.618 to support line of the two sigma channel. In August with increased volatility it’s trading within three standard deviations (marked ‘3’). There is a Bearish engulfing candle today and if the regression holds, short-term it has to return at least to the mean regression i.e. the mean around 36 and it may retrace more to the support of the two sigma line at least. For the time being, I would avoid buying, or will sell short and watch for fibo support levels at .786 to 1.618 of the last impulse wave.

There is no big use in oscillators, short-lived price history, just looking at stochastic with fast settings 14, 1 (blue line) to be oversold close to zero to look for a support level.

!NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE, short trading is connected with higher risk. Always put a stop on short positions