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Imminent Drop Ahead For Applied Materials (AMAT)

NASDAQ:AMAT   APPLIED MATERIALS INC
Applied Materials, Inc. has been dropping suddenly when the positive vortex indicator (discussed below) reaches its current level. This pattern has occurred seven times dating back to December 2015. It could be coincidence and/or it could be a great opportunity to haul in large gains with put options.

The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2955 and the negative is at 0.6028. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive value has begun to retreat and the significance will be covered in the SPECIFIC ANALYSIS section below.

The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.8307 and D value is 59.4358. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic has been moving wildly since the stock lost greater than 9% in June. Currently the stock is approaching overbought levels, but both the K and D may not make it to this point before the stock tumbles again.

SPECIFIC ANALYSIS

Every time the Positive Vortex Indicator value reaches its current level, the stock drops a sizeable amount on the following trading day. In this case, the stock could drop more than 3.5% on Monday July 24, 2017. The observed pattern requires the positive VI value to break above 1.2955 and later retreat below this level. The day of the retreat is the signal, and the following day produces the loss.

Two examples are visible on the chart above with a light blue vertical line. The vertical line represents the day the positive VI value retreats below the 1.2955 mark. As you can see, the day after is always a down day, and a sizeable drop at that. You should be able to scroll to left of the chart above and view all seven instances as they are marked with the same light blue vertical line. The percent lost on these days following the crossing of 1.2955 has been: 9.30%, 3.79%, 7.24%, 1.95%, 1.75%, 3.35%, and 3.26%. That is a minimum loss of 1.75% and median loss of 3.35% with a standard deviation of 2.82%.

Furthermore, most of these one-day losses are just the beginning of greater losses. Five of the instances led to greater losses that spanned between 15-28 days. All of the following losses are based on the close price of the retreat date to the low price on the final day of decline. The minimum decline for all seven instances was 3.50% with a median loss of 7.30%.

The possible movements for the next few weeks are indicated above. The stock could drop to the horizontal light blue line (45.17) at some point on July 24, 2017 or within the next few days. The median movement is the orange rectangle on the chart. If median movement from the previous occasions is achieved, the stock could drop to 43.41 within the next 14 trading days. My conservative pick for movement is a drop to 44.23 within the next 25 trading days. Any of these levels would be significant, but another one day greater than 1.75% would keep this interesting pattern alive.

Considering the information above and recent patterns, the stock should see downward movement over the short to intermediate time period. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the stock could drop at least 5% over the next 25 trading days if not sooner.
評論: With the first half of the trading day complete, the stock has only swung 0.936% from the day's high to low. The stock is also slightly positive for the day at the time of this writing. Either the odd pattern will be broken, or the afternoon session is in for a steep decline.
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