Aspen short looks like a Risky Biscuit - Here's why

This one is tricky and I'd consider a medium to low probability trade.

Aspen has just had a few days worth of bearish candles. Strong selling has clearly taken place.

During the time, it's formed an M Formation.

The price has broken below the neckline however there are danger signs that it might not work out.

1. 7>21 - Bullish.
2. Price >200 and needs to combat and break down
3. Smart Money Concepts - There is a fair value gap with an inefficiency of buying and selling.

So the price is likely to go up at least 50% of the gap before choosing.

4. The JSE is in a jovial and positive mood right now...

So you can see there are conflicting signals and if I had to get in, I would only risk 0.5% in this trade.
RSI<50
Target R134.84
RISKY BISCUIT!