1/3/25 - $arm - don't get sucked in at $140

1/3/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: ARM
don't get sucked in at $140

- those of you who follow know my preference in semis is TSM, NVDA, AVGO (and there are some alts that i'm willing to entertain)

- but why pay 80x PE for 20-25% PE growth when you could pay 35x for NVDA at 40% CAGR EPS or 20x PE for TSM growing 30%+ (and probably understated). it's not like ARM is some new kid worth 5 bn or 10 bn cap. they're $150 bn mkt cap.

- this move today is a positioning one, look across the mkts. and when you add king dawgs NVDA and TSM are having blow out days this ARM pit gets dragged along.

- given TSM reports in 2 weeks, i've traded some of my '27 calls for some lighter fluid ST calls and i'm using ARM as a hedge b/c if semis are weak next week (not anticipating this - i'm actually expecting a few more days of run), i expect TSM ST calls to more than offset my ARM P's. and if semi's r down, ARM will give a lot of this move back and i can reposition back into TSM longer-dated calls (and still think i make money on the ST spread).

- anyway. in '25... i'd not be caught holding this bag. you've been warned, but alas i'll probably get some grief for this lol. just call em like i see em. off to a good start this year with the picks, but playing defense still w a lot of cash as i've monetized some NXT, UBER, TSM and NVDA as of the last 2 days.

have a good weekend.

V