6/10/24 - $aso - dip buy only in the low 40s on EPS- greedy only

6/10/24 - vrockstar - ASO - generally think we should find a spot to buy this but probably won't be necking out in this tape where everything's on edge and i don't believe the mkt has really digested the job's report (which is fake - but for another day friends- i digress).

if you look at this name vs. it's mega peer DKS - it's defn been a bleeder (DKS is much better own - and probably remains the case). but they tend to match each other fairly well. and when you look at the google trends this is also the case - but it's not some massively widening divergence.

trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=/g/11r_j9jln,/m/06fgv_&hl=en

so even tho the market tends to not like valuing '25 if '24 will be trough and we're (in the case of consumer) still entering a wtf scenario is < $7 (this year) the right staring # or $7.5 (which is '25)? if it's $7.5 - we need to be conservative w/ the multiple by a large margin. some of these retailers r going for mid single digits and without debt in the capital stack. this one is 25% debt. so maybe 5x is too cheap, 6-7x good value. if 5x puts us at $35 on the EPS this year - that's obviously a buy. it also suggests we'd probably be at 7% fcf yield (we're at a little over 5% today - that's fine - but not great given the trough picture of biz ops). at 7x on $7 - you're at $49, a hair below where we're at today about 10%. it's not an obvious buy there, but we're getting a good entry.

this isn't typically a name i'd buy and want to hold so i'd need still more then $49. i also don't think they'll necessarily miss, but don't want to buy it to then double down and get married to trading the position to get back to a gain or take the L and move on.

conclusion - we keep this on watch. anything low 40s we dip buy and assess. i'll follow up on this post. if it beat - we let it go. don't need to swing at every pitch.

V