A 3-wave move has developed from the January low, that for now appears hesitant to hold above 91c or its 50% retracement level. Twice we have seen false breaks of the 91c level on the daily chart, and Monday presented a bearish pinbar which closed below the 200-day SMA.
Bearish divergences have also formed on the weekly and daily RSI (14) and daily RSI (2). Perhaps a pullback is brewing.
Bears could fade into moves towards the 200-day SMA, in anticipation for a move down to at least 90c, just above the 50-day SMA and weekly VPOC (volume point of control).
And if the BOC refrain from promising further cuts while delivering an expected 25bp cut tomorrow, it could further strengthen the Canadian dollar and weaken AUD/CAD further.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Bearish divergences have also formed on the weekly and daily RSI (14) and daily RSI (2). Perhaps a pullback is brewing.
Bears could fade into moves towards the 200-day SMA, in anticipation for a move down to at least 90c, just above the 50-day SMA and weekly VPOC (volume point of control).
And if the BOC refrain from promising further cuts while delivering an expected 25bp cut tomorrow, it could further strengthen the Canadian dollar and weaken AUD/CAD further.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
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