On AUD/JPY from here (93.50), the odds favor a slide back toward 86.05 over a rally to 100.94:
Down‐trend bias
After topping near 108 last summer, price has carved a lower high (~96) and is struggling under 94–95.
Range dynamics
You’re in the bottom half of the 86.05–100.94 band; mean‐reversions tend to gravitate back toward the “midpoint” or beyond, and this one has already tested the bottom once in April.
Momentum
Recent daily closes have made lower highs, and there’s no bullish divergence on RSI to suggest strong lift.
Drop below 86.05 first ~65%
Rally above 100.94 first ~35%
Down‐trend bias
After topping near 108 last summer, price has carved a lower high (~96) and is struggling under 94–95.
Range dynamics
You’re in the bottom half of the 86.05–100.94 band; mean‐reversions tend to gravitate back toward the “midpoint” or beyond, and this one has already tested the bottom once in April.
Momentum
Recent daily closes have made lower highs, and there’s no bullish divergence on RSI to suggest strong lift.
Drop below 86.05 first ~65%
Rally above 100.94 first ~35%
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