kiwiwalnut

AUDNZD Possible PA for the month ahead

FX:AUDNZD   澳幣 / 紐元
26 0 1
Pressure is on for RBA to lower rates next week. However it's not a sure bet since CPI             data likely caught the tail end of declining oil             and commodity prices; that are currently rallying. So can be viewed as premature to decrease rates and may get mentioned in release as a convenient excuse to stay put.

Central banks positioning themselves and leaving plenty of ammo spare pending uncertainty towards June Brexit referendum. In the end, a game of chess and everyone positioning themselves to weather the uncertainty coming up; can't play your best hand just yet. Except for BOJ whom are getting cornered - most likely reason no change today was them trying to save what little they have in their tanks for June. And at the same time, risking reduced impact on markets with future announcements from sending too many mixed signals. RBA is in same position as BOJ except they have more room to move in interest rates. So likely to keep rate the same with heavy dovish rhetoric leaving delayed rate decrease on the tables with phrases such as "if evidence supports sustained download pressure" & "global market risks abating" with some silver             linings of strong domestic demand to balance sentiment.
Needless to day, Tuesday RBA decision will be on everyone's watchlist and hopefully RBA can management market expectations / sentiment better than Kuroda.

GDT for NZD likely to ride higher with commodity momentum and shouldn't throw much volatility into the mix. No input in NZ             employment but House Price data expecting move towards a figure into the high 11's to low 12's mark. Likely to act as buoy for NZ             CPI             until outcome of foreign ownership data releases in 2 weeks time; however, will not be market moving event this early on until public opinion builds and legislation is drafted to follow in Australia's footsteps. Some local news to keep in the back of your head for future CPI             expectations in the mid to long term.

1.09 would play a key psychological and structural support / resistance for this pair and area between that and the.500 fib to be area for retrace.
Will be looking to enter short Monday pending price action or a long if PA hits bottom trend line .
Definitely scope for Elliott Wave Analysis and Harmonics here so knock yourselves out.
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