AUDNZD Analysis - Bullish - Trade 07

2024年12月4日

AUDNZD Analysis Overview

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1. Seasonality

AUD: Strong **buy** signal for the first week of December, suggesting upward momentum.

NZD: Range-bound signal, indicating weaker performance compared to AUD.

Seasonality Bias: Buy AUDNZD.

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2. COT Report

AUD:

COT RSI: Decreasing from the top but still indicates bullish positioning.
COT Index: Near the top, signaling strong institutional interest in AUD.
Net Non-Commercial: Increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment.

NZD:

COT RSI: At the bottom (0%), but overall positioning is weak.
COT Index: Bottomed at 0%, reflecting limited institutional support for NZD.
Net Non-Commercial: Decreasing, suggesting bearish momentum.

COT Bias: Buy AUDNZD.

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3. Fundamental Analysis

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI):

AUD: Increasing, pointing to improving economic conditions.
NZD: Increasing, but weaker overall impact compared to AUD.

Endogenous Factors:

AUD: Mix to decreasing, but seasonal strength supports AUD’s buy case.
NZD: Increasing, but weaker compared to AUD.

Exogenous Factors:

AUDNZD exogenous signal supports a buy AUD, sell NZD bias.

Fundamental Bias: Buy AUDNZD.

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4. Technical Analysis

RSI Divergence: Bullish divergence spotted on the 4H timeframe, signaling potential upward movement.
Parallel Channel: Price is at the bottom of a bearish parallel channel, indicating possible reversal to the upside.
Daily Support: Currently holding above a strong daily support zone, reinforcing the bullish setup.

Technical Bias: Buy AUDNZD.

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Final Bias: Buy AUDNZD

All factors—seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, and technicals—align in favor of a BUY setup for AUDNZD. This pair shows potential for upward movement, supported by strong economic and technical signals.

2024年12月5日

交易結束：達到停損點