Our take on the Aussie this morning...

2016年12月5日

Weekly gain/loss: + 14 pips
Weekly closing price: 0.7452
Weekly opening price: 0.7450

Weekly view: Aussie prices were little changed by the week’s close with a mere 14-pip gain recorded! As a result, an indecision candle was chalked in, which, as you can see, is positioned around the top edge of a support area logged at 0.7438-0.7315. A continuation move higher from this angle could force price to connect with a trendline resistance stretched from the low 0.6827. Meanwhile, a push south from here may portend a fakeout to the 2016 yearly opening level at 0.7282.

Daily view: Despite weekly price floating around a support area at the moment, down here on the daily chart the candles are currently seen loitering within striking distance of a trendline resistance taken from the low 0.7407. This barrier capped upside beautifully on Wednesday last week, so there is a chance we may see history repeat itself here! In the event that this hurdle fails to hold, nevertheless, supply at 0.7581-0.7551, followed closely by a broken Quasimodo line at 0.7587 would very likely be the next areas on the hit list.

H4 view: The H4 mid-way resistance level at 0.7450 is currently doing a superb job in holding price lower this morning. Directly above this line is a supply zone seen at 0.7500-0.7477 (converges with the above noted daily trendline resistance), followed by September’s opening level at 0.7518. Supposing that 0.7450 remains firm, however, the 0.74 handle along with December’s opening level at 0.7387 are the next levels seen in the firing range.

Direction for the week: Before weekly bulls can take control from the current support zone, daily sellers must be consumed around the aforementioned daily trendline resistance. Nonetheless, even with a break above this line there’s not much room to play with given the nearby daily supply at 0.7581-0.7551! Therefore, our team has stamped medium-term direction as ‘restricted’ for the time being.

Direction for today: By and large, we feel there’s equal opportunity for prices to trade in either direction today. Areas of interest our team has noted are as follows:

• For longs: between the top edge of H4 demand at 0.7365 and the 0.74 hurdle is somewhere our desk would consider a good place for a bounce, given that it holds December’s opening level at 0.7387.

• For shorts: the area seen between H4 supply at 0.7500-0.7477 and September’s opening level at 0.7518 looks an attractive fakeout zone. Furthermore, let’s not forget note its connection with the above said daily trendline resistance.

Our suggestions: To trade long from the above said H4 buy zone, we would recommend waiting for at least a H4 bull candle to form, since there’s a chance that price could fake through the current H4 demand at 0.7345-0.7365 down to the daily support area at 0.7281-0.7334 that fuses nicely with trendline support taken from the low 0.7145. In regards to our H4 sell zone, we would also recommend waiting for a H4 bear candle to confirm seller interest, simply due to the fact that weekly bulls could push this market higher (see above).

Data points to consider: Caixin Services PMI at 1.45am. FOMC member Dudley speaks at 1.30pm, ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm, FOMC member Bullard speaks at 7.05pm GMT.