Our thoughts on the Aussie at the moment...
Weekly gain/loss: - 1 pip
Weekly closing price: 0.7666
Despite price remaining unchanged going into the week’s closing point, there is some value we can take from last week’s movement. A strong-looking weekly selling wick took shape after price retested the weekly trendline resistance extended from the high 0.8163. In the event that follow-through selling is seen this week, the next area to keep an eye on is the weekly support zone marked at 0.7524-0.7450.
Along the same vein, the daily Quasimodo resistance line at 0.7734 was brought into play on Thursday, which, as you can see, followed through with an extension to the downside on Friday. From this angle, we will expect buying pressure to come into the market once/if price strikes the daily support base pegged at 0.7609.
Swinging over to the H4 chart, we can see that the pair has been entrenched within a rather large H4 ascending channel (0.7605/0.7696) since the beginning of February. Thanks to Friday’s selloff, the unit is now seen trading within touching distance of the channel support, which happens to merge nicely with a H4 mid-way support level at 0.7650 and a H4 demand base coming in at 0.7649-0.7656.
Our suggestions: Although there’s a good chance a reaction may be seen from the 0.7650 neighborhood today, trading from here unfortunately places one in direct conflict with the higher-timeframe structures mentioned above. However, should one be willing to wait for additional confirmation in the form of a reasonably sized H4 bull candle, a trade from here is possible for at least a bounce, in our opinion.
Data points to consider: US durable goods orders at 1.30pm, US pending home sales at 3pm, FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 4pm GMT.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 0.7649-0.7656 (wait for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form before looking to execute a trade, stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
Weekly closing price: 0.7666
Despite price remaining unchanged going into the week’s closing point, there is some value we can take from last week’s movement. A strong-looking weekly selling wick took shape after price retested the weekly trendline resistance extended from the high 0.8163. In the event that follow-through selling is seen this week, the next area to keep an eye on is the weekly support zone marked at 0.7524-0.7450.
Along the same vein, the daily Quasimodo resistance line at 0.7734 was brought into play on Thursday, which, as you can see, followed through with an extension to the downside on Friday. From this angle, we will expect buying pressure to come into the market once/if price strikes the daily support base pegged at 0.7609.
Swinging over to the H4 chart, we can see that the pair has been entrenched within a rather large H4 ascending channel (0.7605/0.7696) since the beginning of February. Thanks to Friday’s selloff, the unit is now seen trading within touching distance of the channel support, which happens to merge nicely with a H4 mid-way support level at 0.7650 and a H4 demand base coming in at 0.7649-0.7656.
Our suggestions: Although there’s a good chance a reaction may be seen from the 0.7650 neighborhood today, trading from here unfortunately places one in direct conflict with the higher-timeframe structures mentioned above. However, should one be willing to wait for additional confirmation in the form of a reasonably sized H4 bull candle, a trade from here is possible for at least a bounce, in our opinion.
Data points to consider: US durable goods orders at 1.30pm, US pending home sales at 3pm, FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 4pm GMT.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 0.7649-0.7656 (wait for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form before looking to execute a trade, stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
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