Possibility of fake breakout after RBA decision.

FX:AUDUSD   澳幣 / 美元
The price has return to the new support line I drew, crossing triangle resistance line (blue). I was hoping that this line will stand, but it hasn't.
So the main point of this chart for me is this big white bullish candle. It has long lower shadow. What caused it?
The RBA interest rate decision to stay at the same level as earlier (2%). Before announcing this, price created big beartrap and caught them.
The long lower shadow candle suggest more upward moves, but there is mid-term resistance line on its way.

Taking all the facts into account, we get 2 possible scenarios.
First one, with higher probability for me, the bulls will push the price to 61,8% fibonnaci retracement, than the sentiment with RBA will cool down, people will take profits and bears will be pushing price lower. Moreover there will be Non Farm Payrolls data for USD and I think this data got to be pro dollar.

The second scenario implies, that the bears will actively defend this resistance line and will push back bulls, creating selling signal.
評論: WTF my particular words were changed to particular stocks...
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