Aussie has held below resistance for nearly five-weeks now with multiple breakout attempts failing at the 52-week moving average.
Weekly resistance now stands with the 2025 high-close / 50% retracement of the September decline at 6429/45 and is backed again by the yearly moving average, currently near ~6485. Critical resistance is eyed with the July close low / 61.8% retracement at 6511/50 and a breach / close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance towards the 2019 low at 6671.
Weekly support rests with the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range / 2025 low-week close at 6286/91. Note that the median-line converges on this zone over the next few weeks and a weekly close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place. Subsequent support seen at 6143/79- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement and the 2024/2022 swing lows.
Bottom line: The Australian Dollar rally has been halted at resistance and the focus is on a breakout of this multi-week range just below. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6285 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 52-week moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
-MB
Weekly resistance now stands with the 2025 high-close / 50% retracement of the September decline at 6429/45 and is backed again by the yearly moving average, currently near ~6485. Critical resistance is eyed with the July close low / 61.8% retracement at 6511/50 and a breach / close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance towards the 2019 low at 6671.
Weekly support rests with the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range / 2025 low-week close at 6286/91. Note that the median-line converges on this zone over the next few weeks and a weekly close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place. Subsequent support seen at 6143/79- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement and the 2024/2022 swing lows.
Bottom line: The Australian Dollar rally has been halted at resistance and the focus is on a breakout of this multi-week range just below. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6285 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 52-week moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
-MB
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