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BKX Bank Index Break Out Today: Expect More Gains For Financials

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Market Consenus View: The "Trump"-Bankrally is overdone and there might be no more potential to the upside.

Today the BKX is telling a diffrent story. There might be more potential to the upside, unexpectedly

So watch this index also closely like NASDAQ Comp., SPX, Dow Transportation, the DJIA and the majority of all European Stockmarkets. All Indices showing right now similar break out patterns wich might set another larger move to the upside, unexpectedly for most traders again and once more. Even retail traders or Pro´s.

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FEB 13 2017 New rate hike diskussion to start. Keep in mind that any rate hike might support financials globally.

Quote: Dallas Fed's Kaplan calls for gradual interest rate rise soon
Economy26 minutes ago (Feb 13, 2017 06:40PM ET)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan on Monday said the U.S. central bank should act soon to raise rates, or risk having to abandon its plan to do so slowly. “I believe that we should be taking steps to remove additional amounts of monetary accommodation,” Kaplan said in remarks prepared for posting to the Dallas Fed website. “Moving sooner rather than later will make it more likely that future removals of accommodation can be done gradually —that is, reduce the likelihood that the Fed will get ‘behind the curve’ and feel the need to remove accommodation more rapidly.” Kaplan is a voter this year on the Fed’s policy-setting panel, the FOMC, and in January joined the rest of his colleagues in deciding to keep the Fed’s target interest-rate steady in the range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent. The Fed next meets in March, but economists and traders are expecting the central bank to wait until June before raising the target rate. Kaplan did not say when he hopes the next interest rate rise will be and also said he sees scope for further job growth without threat of overheating the economy. But, he said, leaving rates low for too long can create distortions in investment and hiring and penalizes savers. His call for more rate hikes comes ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony Tuesday to Congress, and it is unclear if his view reflects growing sentiment among policymakers for a rate rise sooner than later. Kaplan has in the past made comments in keeping with the core of the Fed leadership, including Yellen. Source: investing.com/news/economy-news/dallas-fed's-kaplan-calls-for-gradual-interest-rate-rise-soon-459650

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FEB 14 2017: BKX sets a new 52 week high.

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FEB 14 2017: Reminder: Rate hikes positive for financials.

Yellen repeats warning on waiting too long for the Fed to hike rates
Economy4 minutes ago (Feb 14, 2017 10:12AM ET)

Quote:

Investing.com – Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Janet Yellen repeated her view Tuesday that rate hikes this year would be “gradual” while warning that waiting too long would run the risk of damaging the U.S. economy and continued to insist that it was too early to evaluate the effect of possible fiscal policies to be implemented by President Donald Trump.
“As I noted on previous occasions, waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession,” Yellen stated in her testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.
She stated that incoming data continued to suggest a strengthening labor market and that inflation was moving towards the Fed’s 2% target and that further changes to monetary policy would be data dependent. She did note that changes in fiscal policy or other economic policies could affect the economic outlook.
“Of course, it is too early to know what policy changes will be put in place or how their economic effects will unfold,” Yellen said.
Source: investing.com/news/economy-news/yellen-repeats-warning-on-waiting-too-long-for-the-fed-to-hike-rates-459792

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FEB 14 2017: Clear Break out to the upside. BKX (KBW) up 2 %. invst.ly/39r6l

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FEB 14 2017: Apple and banks propel Wall Street to record high

Quote:
Stock Markets12 minutes ago (Feb 14, 2017 02:26PM ET)

By Noel Randewich

(Reuters) - Major U.S. stock indexes hit record highs on Tuesday, led by bank stocks after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said it would be unwise to wait too long to raise interest rates.

Apple (O:AAPL) rose as much as 1.25 percent to an all-time high of $134.95, contributing to gains in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite indexes. Yellen said delaying rate hikes could force the U.S. central bank to raise rates quicker down the line, which could risk a recession. She also expressed uncertainty over economic policy under the Trump administration. Banks, expected to gain from higher interest rates, led the market higher. Goldman Sachs (N:GS) rose 1.49 percent and Bank of America (N:BAC) added 2.97 percent. The S&P 500 financial index (SPSY) rose 1.3 percent. President Donald Trump's pro-business stance sparked a record-setting rally in stocks following his November election. However, he has given scant detail on his policies, leaving the Fed with limited visibility about the economy's future direction. Speaking to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, Yellen did not indicate whether the Fed still planned to raise rates three times this year, nor did she indicate whether a hike might come in March or in June, as most analysts expect. "With the new president, there is still the uncertainty of the economic policy," said Jeff Carbone, co-founder of Cornerstone Financial Partners in Charlotte, North Carolina. "How much growth we get out of the market will affect policymaking and how quickly they need to react." At 2:04 p.m. (1904 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was up 0.32 percent at 20,477.2, while the S&P 500 (SPX) had gained 0.30 percent to 2,335.32, both reversing losses from earlier in the day. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) added 0.26 percent to 5,778.93.

Yellen's comments lifted the dollar (DXY) and U.S. Treasury yields (US10YT=RR).

Six of the 11 major S&P sectors were lower, led by the utilities (SPLRCU) and real estate <.SPLRCR> sectors, which tend to fall when Treasury yields rise. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 57 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 113 new highs and 16 new lows. Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-street-set-to-open-flat,-with-yellen-speech-awaited-459777

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FEB 15 2017: BKX Powerfull Momentum to the upside invst.ly/39zhj

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FEB 15 2017: Record winning streak not seen in a quarter century.
marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-on-brink-of-best-win-streak-in-a-quarter-century-2017-02-15?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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FEB 18 2017: Trump approval rating sets a new low with 38

Expect Donald Trump is losing more and more supporters. Same time the low approval rates explaining why Trumps tone since few days getting more and more aggressive. Expect another u-turn if Trump recognize that he will fail if he do not change this way of communication. Expect that one of his aids (Conway/Spicer/Bannon) gets "fired" next. This will cause another spike to the upside for stockmarkets.
Source: gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

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Comment: FEB 25 2017 Trump is fueling stockmarkets mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/835481237879926784

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Comment: FEB 27 2017: Wall Street treads water ahead of Trump's Tuesday speech

(Reuters) - Quote: U.S. stocks struggled to find direction in early afternoon trading on Monday, shortly after the S&P 500 and the Dow hit record intraday highs on President Donald Trump's comments of a "big" infrastructure statement on Tuesday.
Trump's first address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday evening is being closely watched by investors for clues on how he planned to carry out his agenda of boosting economic growth.
Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st.-to-open-slightly-lower-after-record-run-462365

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FEB 27 2017: Dollar turns positive, as hopes of March rate hike increase - and so does the BKX
Rate hikes fueling financials - the largest sector.

Forex54 minutes ago (Feb 27, 2017 02:48PM ET)
investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-turns-positive,-as-hopes-of-march-rate-hike-increase-462428

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FEB 27 2017: Rising rates might push financials higher. Financials & Techs together are 25% of the SPX.
The odds of an interest rate hike have begun to shift in a new direction
Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/27/interest-rates-markets-brace-for-march-fed-hike.html

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MAR 1 2017: Financials outperformes DOW and SPX.

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MAR 1 2017: Best day for European Financials since 2015. Source: CNBC.

交易進行

Net gain until now 26%. Trade remains active on sharp rising interest rates:

US Bondmarkets by today officially in bear market territory:

Bill Gross says bond bear market ‘confirmed’ amid Treasurys selloff

The 10-year Treasury yield and the 5-year yield have pushed above their long-term trendlines

Market guru Bill Gross said Treasurys were entering a bear market after a selloff in government paper took yields past key technical levels on Tuesday.

Gross, a bond fund manager for Janus Henderson and a former investor at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in a tweet that both the 5-year note yield TMUBMUSD05Y, +1.91% and the 10-year note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +3.06% pushed above the 25 year long-term trendline, which has kept a lid on yields. Back in October, he said a sustained climb above the 2.40% level and a break-out above these key charting levels could mark a long-awaited upturn in Treasury yields. marketwatch.com/story/bill-gross-says-bond-bear-market-confirmed-amid-treasurys-selloff-2018-01-09

交易進行

Financials should move higher on rising rates. Earnings will go up and stock buy back programms should accelearte. Short term US 10 T Bond Yields reached the widely discussed 2,60% target and might go sideways for a while.

Short Term Target Reached: US TBond Yield 2,60%