Daily crypto hate: Cyclical market cycles. A bull within a bear?
已更新
Hi, crypto hater back to spread more FUD.
As you know, I do not care much for facts, and am mainly motivated by hate. I hate crypto so much. And oh how lucky I am to almost always buy at the bottom only (I hate crypto so much I do not consider buying if it is not the local low) and short right before dumps (due to incontrable extreme hate SHORT IT TO THE GROUND - cannot help it).
:D
Anyway, I already posted this chart around 6 months ago, in the form of a "ridiculous troll" Elliot Wave count:
One of these trendlines will be tested in the next days or weeks innevitably:
Even if we break bullish this does not mean we are going to ath and bear is over, in the same way breaking the brown line does not means crypto is over and we are going straight to 0.
These are the support areas:
Also, when we look at moving averages, my view is confirmed.
Look at what happened when we visited the weekly moving averages for the first time:
Now, look at the monthly chart:
We now see more clearly how we can easilly get a 6 months bull market when those get visited.
About the trendline getting broken but still holding, let me show you this example:
We spent so much time in complacency, gong down would be so violent.
I would say the highest support area has a low chance of holding (I think there is going to be a short lived bounce and I will trade that), while the one that will be the start of a bull market with high odds is the one around 3000:
The bull market could end after around 6 months when BTC gets to test the trendline as resistance and rejects it violently, maybe...
For the part where complacency duration depends on the market participants...
- FX is made of investment bankers and the best traders in the world right (mostly in hedge funds)? There is pretty much no complacency.
- Stocks are made of the public (the more sophisticated part of it, does not mean they are that good, just less bad than average Joe perhaps) and institutions.
With stocks we saw 6 months of "we just need to cool off for the next rally"
- Crypto is similar to stocks now, just a little worse IQ-wise:
- Shiny pet rocks which mostly prehistoric "people" (can they even be considered human) are interested in? Guess what
- Oil market, made of big companies and pro's?
Can this really be just a coincidence? Or simply dumber people take longer to sell and "buy the dip" as popular crypto enthusiasts tell them too?
Learn more about market cycles here: google.com :)
Most of what you will find probably will be about stocks, it might be different for crypto, but the general idea remains the same.
As you know, I do not care much for facts, and am mainly motivated by hate. I hate crypto so much. And oh how lucky I am to almost always buy at the bottom only (I hate crypto so much I do not consider buying if it is not the local low) and short right before dumps (due to incontrable extreme hate SHORT IT TO THE GROUND - cannot help it).
:D
Anyway, I already posted this chart around 6 months ago, in the form of a "ridiculous troll" Elliot Wave count:
One of these trendlines will be tested in the next days or weeks innevitably:
Even if we break bullish this does not mean we are going to ath and bear is over, in the same way breaking the brown line does not means crypto is over and we are going straight to 0.
These are the support areas:
Also, when we look at moving averages, my view is confirmed.
Look at what happened when we visited the weekly moving averages for the first time:
Now, look at the monthly chart:
We now see more clearly how we can easilly get a 6 months bull market when those get visited.
About the trendline getting broken but still holding, let me show you this example:
We spent so much time in complacency, gong down would be so violent.
I would say the highest support area has a low chance of holding (I think there is going to be a short lived bounce and I will trade that), while the one that will be the start of a bull market with high odds is the one around 3000:
The bull market could end after around 6 months when BTC gets to test the trendline as resistance and rejects it violently, maybe...
For the part where complacency duration depends on the market participants...
- FX is made of investment bankers and the best traders in the world right (mostly in hedge funds)? There is pretty much no complacency.
- Stocks are made of the public (the more sophisticated part of it, does not mean they are that good, just less bad than average Joe perhaps) and institutions.
With stocks we saw 6 months of "we just need to cool off for the next rally"
- Crypto is similar to stocks now, just a little worse IQ-wise:
- Shiny pet rocks which mostly prehistoric "people" (can they even be considered human) are interested in? Guess what
- Oil market, made of big companies and pro's?
Can this really be just a coincidence? Or simply dumber people take longer to sell and "buy the dip" as popular crypto enthusiasts tell them too?
Learn more about market cycles here: google.com :)
Most of what you will find probably will be about stocks, it might be different for crypto, but the general idea remains the same.
註釋
Bitcon might look like I predicted, but with a much sharper decline:註釋
Going faster than on chart, not supposed to be to scale.Bottom (1500-1800$) reached in the next 3 months.
註釋
Still going faster than on the chart. Sub 3k later.We are now in the "the worse is behind us" stage.
People are going to get completely hysterical if Bitcoin makes it to 9/10k.
Of course I "never saw this coming" even thought I posted about it 40 thousand times :)
I did not call the exact bottom & exact top to the very dollar 12 months early, my bad I need to improve my crystal ball.
3k was probably not the bottom this looks too much like denial/B wave / bull market in bear cycle.
Up to now Bitcoin is doing the same it did in 2014 because "last time" is all the public knows. There are no investment more mainstream than Bitcoin. I estimate about 10% of the planet is in. That is alot. Hey the first worldwide bubble. Nice.
The next months or let's say "swing" because I have no idea the time it takes, might be when we finally lose correlation to 2014 and here goes "last time" and panic starts "WHAT DO WE DO NOW THIS DID NOT HAPPEN LAST TIME".
註釋
2011-2013 4.5 extension2015-2017 7 extension
2019 ? 12k is 4.236 extension
20k is about 6 extension
7 extension is a little under 30k
An extension of 10 would be 75k
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。