BTC | Market Cycle Top Speculations

2021年10月29日Here are my thoughts on where the current market cycle top may peak.

You can see there is a clear effect of diminishing returns and cycles lengthening.

You can see that from market cycle one (2011-2013) --> market cycle two (2015-2017) --> market cycle three (2018-current) that cycles are not only giving less returns from both bottom to top but also from market cycle top to top. Each cycle is also taking longer. I have not included data before 2011 as data seems to be sketchy and the data is not clear in my opinion.

I would therefore speculate that the current cycle would take longer than previous cycle, potentially ending somewhere between 150k-220k. This is of course speculation but given the previous data points it does seem like a reasonable ending point from the next leg up from 64k in April. I do not believe there is enough momentum in this market cycle to take us into the ~300k range.

also if you link a trend line from peak in June 2019 to 2021 peaks and speculate that price may peak in 2022 that would also put the price at around ~170k. A trend line linking 2013 and 2017 peaks would put us a 300k+, which I think is likely unattainable this market cycle.

With cycles shown to be lengthening, it would seem like there is a reasonable chance that we should look for potential market cycle peak indicators to come in some time in 2022. It is hard to be precise with time (timing is always the hardest factor to determine in markets) but it seems that the most likely time horizons would point to Q2-Q3 2022.

My thoughts on market cycle top

67k - less 10% chance
67k-120k - 30% chance
150-220K - 50% chance
250+ - 10% chance


This is intended to give you some food for thought, not a definitive guide on where the market cycle may peak


Where do you think the Bitcoin cycle may peak and when?