BTC realistic scenarios, no panic

2019年10月16日

Judging by the monthly (blue) horizontal lines, the price has been doing "line-to-line" play each time in the past. Meaning, each time it breached a monthly line, it went up to the next one. Each time it bounced down, it bounced down to the next monthly line.

Since we bounced down form the ~13800, there's slightly more chance the next target line would be the ~6200 monthly line.

The ~6200 price is the crossing between a horizontal monthly trendline 2 years old, and the diagonal trendline which is more than 4 years old. Breach bellow that price would mean cataclysim of epic proportions.

Option 1 (green line):
- price goes down back to ~6200 area
- bounce up from the strong support
- breach ~9000 and back to the bull market

Option 2 (blue line):
- instant breach of the ~9000 area
- continuation of the bull market

Option 3 (red line):
- price shortly reaches ~9000 area
- bounce down back to ~6200 area
- bounce up from the strong support
- breach ~9000 and back to the bull market

Option 4 (purple line):
- price shortly reaches ~9000
- bounce down back to ~6200 area
- breach of the ~6200 zone down to the <5000 zone
- Pit of Doom

I think the options 1, 2 and 3 are the the options with more chance, whereas the option 4 cannot be overseen, but we do not have enough evidence (yet) for that scenario to play out.

My opinion is that the option 4 has slightly more chance to play out, than the other 2, since it respects the monthly trendlines, the horizontal trendline, as well as the current triangle in creation.

2019年10月31日

註釋

One more thing I haven't noticed on time is the Weekly StochRSI.

3 out of 4 times (red circles) when we dipped bellow the 55 line, the price followed down. The only time the price didn't follow down (green circle), it took us 112 days to the next ATH.