I had already experimented with fitting some curves to long term data, they just seem to fit better than the usual straight lines, especially when considering older data :-
However, I had never attempted an extrapolation, until I saw Flavius' idea on Mega cycles :-
So, I have attempted to continue his idea, combine with my curved long term channel and see where we could possible be at the next peak. Essentially, this idea gives us a low of around 3k and a next high of 100k early 2022. Plenty of time to configure the Lambo.
FYI - the vertical blue lines are the halvings.
評論
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Patience. Patience. Not buying yet. This could take another month or even 6 months.. 12 months.
Btw not to keep picking on you, but if the price drops to 2.9k that's way below the breakeven cost (incl overheads) of even Chinese miners, which also has major implications for network availability (any miners left?) and security (if yes, 51 % attack!).
darobsta
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@barclayjames, lol. pick on me, that's fine. The price was below 2.9k a year ago and the miners were fine, and the security was fine. They will be forced to reduce their operations and some may go out of business. The most efficient will survive. Difficulty will adjust. Given a constant computational efficiency, the hashrate would lower but it would be protecting less value and the incentives to steal would lower inline... and anyway, the next gen mining hw will mean that there would be more hashrate and security than the last time we were at 2.9k.
RealMcafee
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@darobsta, difficulty adjusts every two weeks, that means it was a lot cheaper for miners to find blocks a year ago. After the 2015 bear market, the price spent ten months fluctuating about an average of 250 usd, that was (according to some sources) the average production cost of Bitcoin...
@barclayjames, yes, I would assume that in a bear market the cost of mining would eventually oscillate down to the price of bitcoin. Some miners may even choose to run at a loss for a while, especially those with a lot of infrastructure and large reserves of USD or BTC. If I was a large miner I would use a bear market as an opportunity to push smaller operations with less reserves and less efficient hw out of business.
tomm.giannessi23
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"Plenty of time to configure the Lambo" LOL .
Really Interesting charts !