So, I like the idea of repeating patterns - lots of things create these, from market sentiment to habits of investors and traders, to the reaction of 'newblood/weak hands', market manipulation, etc.
The previous drop we had 21-22 December rebounded pretty quickly, but then we dropped again and retraced a good amount - before finally recovering in a more stable manner.
There's potential for the past few days to repeat what we experienced in December. Especially if the price drops and crosses the MA like it did in December - this would be a strong sign (to me) that it'll drop again and it's not just a wobble during recovery.
Good potential for price to fall within the two blue bars. If it drops below, then we could possibly go lower than we did this week.
Note: Chart is BTCEUR , but BTCUSD looks similar.
Additional points to consider:
- RSI pattern is similar
- We've had drops like this and recovered before continuing to go up - but those were in strong bull periods prior to the All Time High in December. Although I believe BTC is long-term bull, I also think we're in a bit of a bear period. The last drop (highlighted) was within the current bear period and it retraced a good % of the recovery from the initial bottom.
- BTC is in a bit of a period, the recovery at the moment may just be a bounce as people buy back in, then sell out to take quick profit.
- It's taken BTC far less time to recover much of the price drop than it did to loose value. It just doesn't feel stable in terms of recovery - yet.
- BTC could just go sideways, or even up. My personal view is likely for a second drop (possibly not as deep), even a chance for a further drop below the recent bottom *if* people start to panic again (this assumes recent drop was largely due to panic, rather than market manipulation...although I suspect a bit of both)
My tactic at the moment is use some funds to set a series of limit buys based on retracement levels from the recent drop - guided by the resistance levels and fib retracement from the All Time High - as I believe BTC will always 'bounce' back quickly from extreme drops and offer an opportunity to take profit reasonably. BUT you have to monitor and sell quickly when the price bounces back up. Although targetting *extreme* drops doesn't offer as much 'action' on BTC , it happens far more often than non-crypto and horribly seems to be more 'reliable' as it happens fairly often, it also tends to offer more reliable profits.
(This let me pick up ETH and BTC at some great prices this week and make a tidy profit. Some buys weren't triggered, but that's perfectly fine.)
Regardless, we crossed the MA and dropped down into the buy zone I predicted quite nicely.