Argument for Bitcoin seeing a new low below 28k within a month

2021年8月3日

Historically, when bitcoin has entered a bear market, it follows a descending triangle that eventually breaks down. The question now is wether this will happen once again. Looking at the descending trend line, Bitcoin has almost perfectly rejected it. We also have the fib from the high (65k) to the low (28k) where it stayed under the .382, a crucial zone that needed to be broken for bullish movement. This all indicates that Bitcoin will move down in the short term, but will it possibly bounce? Short answer: most likely it won't bounce enough. Looking at the shorter time frame, or the last 2 weeks, where bitcoin rose from 29k shows very weak support. I believe that we will slowly keep descending till we hit 36600, and then dump hard. This is due to Bitcoins dramatic rise from 34k to nearly breaking 40k. There is a gap with no support between 34k and 36.6k, and my belief is that many people with longs opened at 29k to 34k have either already closed their positions, or have set a stop loss at 36.6k. Seeing a massive fall when it breaks will provide grounds for a bounce at 34k. 34k is a crucial point, if we can break 38k from 34k then it is possible to see upside, but be warned: when bitcoin hits 34k and when it retests 37-38k and gets rejected, there is room for another 40% drop, based on historical bear markets. It WILL fall from the descending triangle and can easily reach the 20k region. Next question; when can we see this happen ? Because this next dump is imminent, I believe it will happen by august 5th. Then we can see a bounce for 2 days and either upside ( or imo downside) after that. We will see a gradual fall or rise, much like what is currently happening for a couple weeks, and then a large pump or dump depending on the direction. I opened a short at 42450 at 25x and have been holding it so far. I will take profits at 34k and flip to a long position. From there I will keep it open till a rejection and then flip short again, based on my levels. I think that's basically it, if you have questions, then just comment. Hope everyone is ready for the big moves about to happen !!! Good luck all.

Here is a graphical showcase of what is in store