With weekly channel down, BTC is aiming a test of monthly MA50=2964.3 (4-years avg). With successive bearish legs and nearly 50% down below the last consolidation range, BTC remains bearish and couldn't get higher than 4400 although it was expected to re-test the 6K support. It appears the opposite of a parabolic rise i.e. a parabolic fall, which simply means that we will come back to the same level after several months but it won't look back for now.
With this clarification in hand, BTC must test the MA50 on the monthly timeframe, which may land in Jan/Feb 2019. This level is also very critical since it forms Jan 2017 resistance, thus today's support.
If this level fails to hold in future, I will assume that the odds for testing the last ATH =1170 (avg) will increase. Smart traders will counter trade that and will take profits as a long.
However, is it wise to take a long position now, certainly NOT.
Good luck and talk soon!
With this clarification in hand, BTC must test the MA50 on the monthly timeframe, which may land in Jan/Feb 2019. This level is also very critical since it forms Jan 2017 resistance, thus today's support.
If this level fails to hold in future, I will assume that the odds for testing the last ATH =1170 (avg) will increase. Smart traders will counter trade that and will take profits as a long.
However, is it wise to take a long position now, certainly NOT.
Good luck and talk soon!
註釋
The channel down test is narly there to test the weekly MA200 or monthly MA50.
註釋
The channel is still down despite pre-Christmas Rally, giving another short opportunity.
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