23% fib bounce

I'm still very new to analysis and not yet actively trading. Just getting practice making calls to see if I'm right. Feedback welcome! I'd love to hear some tips and tricks from more seasoned traders and what you think of my analysis.

Yesterday I talked about a falling wedge forming (see related ideas), which turned out to not be as strong as I thought and I ended up being pretty wrong. I'm realizing I may be too zoomed in when looking for trends. I've started looking at the 60 minute instead of the 30 minute today, and zooming out for several weeks when considering my patterns, even my small intra-daily patterns.

Today, it looks like we're set to drop back down to the 23% fib around $12600 which I would say is a good entry point not just for a quick trade on the rebound, but possibly for a larger upward week-long swing, which I've stated before that I believe is coming off of this fib due to a strong support line shown back on the 30th & 31st, as well as the 22nd of December. Like I said yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised if this brings us back up to the high $16000s

Things to note:
Interesting but unrelated: The yellow box shows a "3 black crows" candle pattern which is confirmed by the big selloff candle right after. Take a look at that volume! I was just reading about this pattern and was happy to see such a clear example in the last 24 hours.

This huge volume selloff was immediately trumped by an even larger volume buy-in. I think a lot of traders were thinking this was the new bottom, but I think we've got one more selloff to go before we get back up - the cloud is still bearish as ever. There are a variety of ways I could be wrong. We'll see.

Let me know what you think!
評論: We didn't quite hit the entry point I was looking for, but overnight looks to confirm the general direction we're going. I bought in on the fake breakout right before the 3 crows candle pattern and have been holding on since. Hopefully I get a chance to sell later. I have a feeling we'll be playing around inside the cloud a little bit, but nothing is really signalling to me that we'll break out of the top today.

I do like this idea from user jpfortin:
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