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Bitcoin Bullish Reversal with IH&S as Segwit Activations Loom

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Unfortunately, it seems that the Megabull ended prematurely thanks to a bunch of greedy companies and miners attempting to monopolize Bitcoin and sabotage Segwit:

Roger Ver with Bitmain attempt to launch Bitcoin Unlimited through a Hard Fork but fail to get community support due to poor coding of BU, ASICBoost, Antbleed etc.
We finished from BU thought we were done, then Barry Silbert whose building his empire on cryptocurrencies through legal and shady means (owns Digital Currency Group, Genesis Global Trading, a bitcoin OTC trading firm, and Grayscale Investments, took advantage of the Ethereum fork to make ETC from the chain split) and big crypto-dependent firms took it upon themselves to come up with Segwit2x variation through NYA Meeting without inviting Bitcoin Core devs (main Dev of Bitcoin since inception). These big players decided they would develop instead their own quick untested Segwit version through RSK developers (Bitmain invested in them and who knows who) and also Hard Fork a 2MB form as well few months later. The rest of the community was not consulted.
BitcoinABC: Although Bitmain agreed to Segwit2x, somehow Jihan wants as well his own Bitcoin version through a Hard Fork which he would pre-mine for himself before releasing and it would increase the block size to a whopping 8MB.

As you see we have multiple big corporations attempting a hostile takeover of open source cryptos. The worst part is that their Segwit code is poorly coded/buggy and it also contains hard-coded seeds that send network data to some of the corporations (data mining). All these corporations should be held liable in front of a court of law for attempting to destroy or manipulating the $80 Billion cryptocurrency ecosystem in their favor.

Anyways, enough venting from my end and lets just to this simple analysis of the current bear trend in play:

Based on this 235D cycle and the blue bear market fractal from 2013 (post-megabull bearish trend), Bitcoin could attempt to put a bottom earlier than expected at $1950-1850 and start a new megabull cycle immediately if Segwit Bitcoin Core (BIP 148) activation succeeds without a chain split through August 2017. The bullish reversal would complete through the plotted inverted head and shoulder (IH&S) on the chart. As depicted, we would start the new megabull around September 9 and reach the final All Time High at $13,370 - $10,000 at the 235D Cycle top on October 9. This is the best scenario and to be honest the chances of it occurring aren't pretty high due to the uncertainty lying ahead with potential chain splits and hard forks from different groups. Worse case scenario not depicted on this chart would be 1 year of bear market 2014 style

Currently, were looking at a bottom as:
1. Support at $1950-1850 which is 50% Fibonacci retracement and Bitcoin is potentially testing this area as a final bottom.
2. The 1D RSI is oversold currently at 28 and we had some capitulation wick down to $1830 on Stamp and finex.
3. Notice we hit the 3D Bollinger bottom band as well at $2000-1975 roughly. Previous bear trends weren’t shy of dropping $100-200 under the bottom 3D Bollinger band with volatility before violently bouncing up with a short squeeze.

Stoplosses:
1. If we do close a daily under $1800 then the entire trade setup would be VOID.
2. Also consider this entire chart VOID if the Bitcoin chain splits in two or more chains through August 2017. If we do split chains, then expect Bitcoin to crash down to $1240-1140 support eventually.

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註釋

Surprise surprise - Bitcoin Segwit Update:

Miners are signaling BIP91 which combines BIP148 UASF (Segwit Core) & Segwit2x NYA (Segwit + Hard Fork within 12 months) to avoid a blockchain split or hard fork short-term. You guys know what this means, this was all a stunt from big corporations and miners to get cheap Bitcoins then resignal their support to Core. Mark my words, few months down the road and then they will pull up the same thing and reach resolution as we close on the Hard Fork date to 2MB.

註釋

So far spot on. We took profit at the top $2400-2340.
Bracing for sideways for the next few weeks.
Clear support $2220 and $2100 through August 2nd then we break out as long as no split chain happens.

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註釋

BIP91 Segwit Core (with future 2MB Hard Fork in 1 year from now) ended up locking in as the UASF community and Bitcoin Core developers ended up winning and manipulative miners capitulated (or it was their plan all along to shake out weak hands to get cheap coins).

In any case the bullish reversal through the IH&S on my chart ended up completing faster than I expected thanks to BIP91 locking in earlier than expected which in turn sent the Bitcoin price surging the biggest jump of $1000 we've seen ever by retesting the previous ATH at $2940.

The current fractal in blue from 2013 was pointing to sideways for few weeks till August 1st, but at this point we can expect the 36 days of consolidation to occur above $2600-2500 at the current highs OR for Bitcoin break up at anytime within the next few days.

I have taken some time to study the history of Bitcoin for fractals imitating the current trend but I could not find any that would fit perfectly. The closest one so far is on this chart.

註釋

We put in a bottom at the 1D Mid Bollinger band at $2450-2400 area as I have stated on my twitter channel (instead of $2500 that I roughly estimated earlier).

I am still confident that we will be going in long annoying sideways till August 24th in the wide range of $2940-2400 then resume the megabull towards new highs after that date.

Stoploss would be any daily candle closing under the $2400 1D Mid Bollinger band.

註釋

Well Folks the Bitcoin Megabull started prematurely here right on after the Guru Cycle started on August 2nd creating a bullish cycle. I believe the big Bitcoin market makers decided to step in ahead of time and start the megabull early due to the threat that Bitcoin Cash (just another altcoin) brought to protect the Bitcoin community.

The megabull starting now is a big big blow to Jihan, Roger and the Chinese miners monopoly who hard forked Bitcoin. This was a clear message that 90% of the community is behind the Core Devs and Segwit, and the minority through any future hard forks will not affect Bitcoin ever again.

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Next stop $3500. If you are interested in knowing more about my trading courses where you learn to plot like a really Guru, or if you'd like to join my daily trading alerts on crypto PM me for more info!

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Zoomed in view on the 4H. Were within a parallel channel doing a stair case. This can keep going and going till end of September, early October.

My suggestion is do not attempt to call out tops on this rally, else you will sell out in fear, regret it later then you will be buying back with a loss. Instead, have a strategy in place or seek guidance or join my Cryptocurrency Trading Alert group. Ask questions there.