reppac

Simple Buying Strategy

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
TA is all well and good. Its fun and informative. There is however a lot of ambiguity, so I have been working on building a simple strategy. I have tested it over the period since the downturn and tripled the investment. However its all been theoretical and I am now putting it into practice. I will keep the complex TA going, but also keep it separate from this buying strategy. The strategy is relatively safe and simple, and as you can see from the chart, I have really pulled back on getting sidetracked by anything that can draw away from the strategy.

Basics:
Step 1: Only buy when 1day StochRSI is bullish and above 30%
Step 2: Only buy when 4hr StochRSI is bullish and above 30%.
Caveat: 4hr bullish crossovers must also be below 50% (eg a bear trend turning to bull at 90% is avoided)

Trades are stopped when 4hr StochRSI turns bear and is below 70% (will consider entering early for extreme circumstances)

BTC             has now confirmed step one, however, Step 2 is not confirmed, so now I wait patiently.

評論: 4hr StochRSI did not go bullish, so Step2 not completed - no trade
評論: 1D StochRSI bearish crossover. Step 1 now unfulfilled, so back to the beginning.
Note: Price has gone down about 3.5% since Step 1 initially fulfilled, so good decision to not enter trade.
評論: 1D StochRSI bullish crossover has occurred below 50%, completing step 1. Normally I would wait for the candle to close at midnight.

However, the 4hr has a bearish crossover, ruling out Step 2. Again, I should wait for midnight to confirm. However, it been a long day, I am knackered and the 1hr StochRSI is on the way down, so little chance the 4hr will reverse in the next 30 minutes.
評論: Holding Your Nerve
The single biggest cause of trade failures is emotion. One of the purposes of creating a set of personal trading rules is to avoid emotion.
For the last few days price has been increasing in general and its tempting to enter a trade. However, the rules laid out in the steps have not been fulfilled.
If I enter a trade now, 1 of two things would occur:
  • Make profit, thus invalidating our rules before even testing them
  • Make a loss, thus 1) proving the rules are good 2) proving I am an idiot 3) making a loss
The first option is "reward" and the second option is "risk." In this case the risk far out ways the reward.

So in my head I look at the numbers and repeat the mantra:

"Hold Your Nerve"
交易進行: 1 day StochRSI has fulfilled initial requirement for a while:

4hr StochRSI, has just passed Step 2 requirements.

Entering trade now.
Price: 8335
交易結束:達到停損點: Apologies for not keeping this up to date - been very busy.

Pulled out of the trade on 16th at 8050
Loss: 4%
交易進行: Updating with a sub step / rule:
When entering a trade check the 1hr interval to improve the timing of the entrance.

With this in mind, a trade that would have been made on 18th, was delayed
A) because I was asleep
B) further delayed due to new sub rule.

Enter trade at 7926
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