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Bitcoin extended correction scenario

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
I anticipate Bitcoins             two years bull run is coming to an end, and will continue to slowly correct over the coming weeks.

Chart above is a possible scenario.

BTC             is hanging by a hair on 1D 50 Moving Average which also aligns with a trendline that's been holding for now.

We saw a touch yesterday, and we'll likely see a break in the coming hours.

Breaking 1D 50MA support will take us straight to 11 - 12.5k area which needs to prove another strong bounce by the bulls in order to avoid another big correction.

If 11.5 - 12.5k area is not able to hold, i expect a further downward movement which will take us to 9.5 - 10k area.
Here lies the 100D MA and another important trendline we previously have seen strong bounces from.

9.5 - 10k support area will likely produce a good bounce. Bulls might be able to take it higher than .5 fib and try to turn the trend back to bullish . I believe odds are it won't succeed and will dump further to the bear target in a massive panic sell off, all across the crypto market.

Bear target: 6.5k
Extended fib target: 5k

Remember News doesn't move markets, but they catalyst events that's bound to happen.
That said, we are seeing a lot of FUD all across the board which also speaks for a bear scenario.
交易進行: It's starting
snapshot
評論: Well defended bulls, 13.3k holds for now.
Likely a 16k test will be followed now, and then we see wether we go higher or lower from there.
I'm sure you've seen the "Lifecycle of a Bubble" chart. If we follow that, it supports a return to the 4k-6k range. For the short term, I'm bearish, but even for the long term I have changed from bullish to neutral on Bitcoin. I would love people's thoughts on this:

Looking at the top 50 coins -
* December 10, BTC had 63% of a $390 mil market, with market cap of $233 mil
* Jan 9, BTC has 37% of a $678 mil market, with market cap of $249 mil
To lose 26% market share in only one month is actually pretty astounding. .... $300 million poured into market in the last month, and BTC is still trading at the SAME PRICE as a month ago.

Now, I can see one of two things happening:
* BTC bulls take over SOON, driving BTC to past the $17k-18k area, causing a bunch of the money in the altcoin market to rotate back to BTC. Let's say this happens and BTC can retake 50% of market share... 50% of $678 mil total market would be a new $339 mil market cap for BTC, and increase of about 50% from current, for a new high of around $22,500. From there, the bulls can keep control and drive it higher.
* BTC bears keep control, and BTC follows your chart above. In this scenario, the entire market will fall, HOWEVER new money will keep coming into the market -- but new money will heavily go into altcoins vs BTC, driving BTC's overall share even lower.... let's say BTC market share can drop to 15% of a $900 mil market (among the top 50 coins). ... This would give BTC a new market cap of only $135 million and a trading price of about $7,000.

NOW, let's say the second option happens... if $750 million is in "coins other than BTC" then BTC will almost definitely lose #1 position to Ethereum, and possibly drop even further down the list of coins to #3, #4, #5...

And, people will realize that even with Bitcoin's incredible year last year, that AMONG THE TOP 40 COINS LAST YEAR, BITCOIN'S RETURNS WERE #21 ON THE LIST!. And, Bitcoin will become like "Myspace vs Facebook" and will cement it's trading along the "new normal" price of about $4,000 and slowly rising from there as the overall market grows.
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