BTCUSD bounce UPDATE: Bitcoin have one more push to 3800 left ?
已更新
This is a follow up to my last short term outlook, looking for wave 5 of the impulse:
We appear to have an extended wave 5 in progress (or is about done).
Truly implusive wave 5's shoud have a 5-wave substructure.
Thus far this wave 5 looks to have one more leg to fit the substructure.
Also, this impulse has already surpassed the wave 4 down, and is very close to the wave 1.
So this is not just a correction for this last 12345 impulse down, but probably of a larger order.
I wil evaluate the bigger picture later, but wanted to post this plot to see how it plays out.
All in all, I still expect ONE more LOWER LOW before the bear trend ends.
BUT this bounce has decelerated the downtrend dramatically, having almost nullified the last impulse down.
Is the bottom in? Maybe, but I am suspicious. If not, I DO think we are CLOSE to the bottoming.
.
.
.
Background:
This is a continuation of my calculations to find the 'bottom' and consider whether it will go any lower or not.
First I saw 3618 on CoinBase as important which had been on my charts for over 6 months:
Getting closer, I started to see a bigger picture of a 4 wave impulse that started with the 7400 drop:
As it bounced, 4425 came into focus as the big hurdle:
After it topped at 4425, a rising wedge combined with EW waves pointed to a serious pullback:
So now zooming back out to the original large 5 wave impulse, targets are in sight again:
The current chart is to plot to estimate the top of this bounce:
We appear to have an extended wave 5 in progress (or is about done).
Truly implusive wave 5's shoud have a 5-wave substructure.
Thus far this wave 5 looks to have one more leg to fit the substructure.
Also, this impulse has already surpassed the wave 4 down, and is very close to the wave 1.
So this is not just a correction for this last 12345 impulse down, but probably of a larger order.
I wil evaluate the bigger picture later, but wanted to post this plot to see how it plays out.
All in all, I still expect ONE more LOWER LOW before the bear trend ends.
BUT this bounce has decelerated the downtrend dramatically, having almost nullified the last impulse down.
Is the bottom in? Maybe, but I am suspicious. If not, I DO think we are CLOSE to the bottoming.
.
.
.
Background:
This is a continuation of my calculations to find the 'bottom' and consider whether it will go any lower or not.
First I saw 3618 on CoinBase as important which had been on my charts for over 6 months:
Getting closer, I started to see a bigger picture of a 4 wave impulse that started with the 7400 drop:
As it bounced, 4425 came into focus as the big hurdle:
After it topped at 4425, a rising wedge combined with EW waves pointed to a serious pullback:
So now zooming back out to the original large 5 wave impulse, targets are in sight again:
The current chart is to plot to estimate the top of this bounce:
註釋
Looks like a micro ABC is playing, to make for the wave 4. 
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