Bitcoin Breakdown? A Long-Term Correction Might Be Brewing

6月5日

🔻 Positional Sell Call: Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
📍 Entry: ~$102,356
❌ Stop Loss: $106,000 (above the recent weekly high)
🎯 Long-Term Downside Targets (based on weekly chart):
• Target 1: $97,000
• Target 2: $90,000
• Target 3: $83,000
• Extended Target (if correction deepens): $74,000

📊 Technical Breakdown – Weekly Chart View:
• Failed Breakout at ATH Zone:
BTC/USD attempted a breakout above the previous ATH range (~$105,000–$106,800) but faced sharp rejection with high volume — a classic bull trap on the weekly candle.
• Bearish Engulfing Weekly Candle:
The last weekly candle shows a strong bearish engulfing pattern near resistance — often the first sign of a sustained downside move.
• Volume Spike on Selloff:
Increasing volume during the rejection week suggests institutional distribution rather than retail panic — a red flag for bulls.
• Historical Retest Level:
$90,000–$83,000 served as the launchpad in prior moves — now likely to act as the first major demand zone on correction.

📰 Fundamental Headwinds (As of June 2025):
• Whale Distribution Underway:
On-chain data shows whales are booking profits after the recent rally. A sustained transfer from large to smaller wallets is historically followed by major downtrends.
• ETF Euphoria Fades:
The earlier rally was driven by Bitcoin ETF optimism and institutional inflows. With this news now priced in, the market appears to be correcting expectations.
• Macroeconomic Pressure:
The Fed has held rates higher for longer. Risk assets, including crypto, are showing fatigue as liquidity dries up. Bitcoin, being speculative in nature, is vulnerable.


⏳ Time Horizon:

This is a multi-week to multi-month positional trade based on the weekly time frame. Patience is key — wait for structure to evolve before adjusting targets.

⚠️ Risk Management:
• Stop Loss: Firm above $106,000
• Risk/Reward: ~1:3 for Target 2
• Position Size: Use only capital earmarked for swing or long-term trades.

✅ Summary:

Bitcoin has printed a strong weekly rejection from the ATH zone, hinting at a potential long-term correction. With deteriorating technical structure and cooling sentiment post-ETF hype, this is a low-frequency, high-conviction short setup for swing traders.

🧠 Patience is your profit. This isn’t a scalp — it’s a slow bleed.

6月13日

交易進行

I think re-entry is on the cards.