This one is pretty self-explanatory.
I drew the logarithmic trend channel, and drew a repeat of the 2013 cycle.
If such a thing were to occur, the new target estimates are 50K for the first top, end of december/ beginning of january.
Then bouncing between 10K and 30K for a few months like in summer 2013.
Then the end of this hype cycle at 100-200K.
Then a pretty brutal bearmarket like in 2014 and 2015.
Then the start of the next hype cycle after the halving 2020.
I drew the logarithmic trend channel, and drew a repeat of the 2013 cycle.
If such a thing were to occur, the new target estimates are 50K for the first top, end of december/ beginning of january.
Then bouncing between 10K and 30K for a few months like in summer 2013.
Then the end of this hype cycle at 100-200K.
Then a pretty brutal bearmarket like in 2014 and 2015.
Then the start of the next hype cycle after the halving 2020.
DukeDinhd6
look like 20k was top, heading to 10k and then 100k by summer
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Johnsdad
btc update?
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CRCVDE
I also think this is a very possible scenario. Just want to point out that you should connect the gray line to the top that was reached at the end of 2013. (The gray line is 1 fib. Level) then you will also see that there are a lot of support and resistance levels being confirmed by fib level 0.236 until 0.786 ;)
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FlaviusTodorius67
CRCVDE
@CRCVDE, Thanks for the advice :) I will remember it.
+1
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wrwtrading
Thanks for posting - would certainly be interesting to see. Should "history repeat itself", what enablers or key events would need to fall in place to repeat the 2013 cycle?
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FlaviusTodorius67
wrwtrading
@wrwtrading, The first enabler just happened, the CME futures. The next one could be the ETF getting approved in 2018 together with launch of lightning network.
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shadowribbed
Dead on!
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ppierro
Good call. I've been also considered such scenario in my analysis
and then the top of current ride would be around 40k. Anyway your fibs fits better than simple pitchfork. Nice work
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FlaviusTodorius67
ppierro
@ppierro, Thanks for your analysis. 40K seems also very reasonable. Yes, somewhere in the range 40K to maybe even 70K.
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MeroviusCapital
Rubbish
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