Sept 6. Start DCA'ing these alts

Overview:
The SP500 is down, QQQ is down even more, and BTCUSD has dropped. Everything is red! Or wait… SUIUSDT is up! Could this still be the effects of the Grayscale Trust, and how much longer can SUI defy the overall market? Previous Grayscale picks like NEARUSDT and TAOUSDT aren’t performing as well on red days like yesterday.

The Fed reported fewer new jobs added in August—lower than expected, even after multiple revisions. This was also fewer than the job additions in August of the past few years. Quantitative tightening is in full swing! These metrics signal a potential path to a rate cut, but large economies like the U.S. don’t pivot easily, especially not with just a move from 5.50% to 5.25%. Higher unemployment and fewer job openings will likely persist for months, possibly even quarters.

Yet, no federal bailouts? No major bankruptcies? Meanwhile, commercial real estate is still struggling, with San Francisco’s office vacancy rate rising to 37%, up from 36.7% in Q1 2024.

BTC ETFs are seeing 9 consecutive days of outflows. ETHUSD has seen consistent selling throughout August, except for a slight uptick on August 28th when Blackrock bought slightly above the original Grayscale Trust level.

Believe it or not, this is when whales start dollar-cost averaging (DCA) back into the market. So why is the market falling if big players are buying? These deep pockets unloaded their portfolios and secured profits early in the year when green candles were stacking up. The current selling pressure is from retail traders, as reflected in ETF trends.

If you still have cash (or those precious paychecks), this could be a good time to spread it out into 10-15 weekly buy orders. Don't try to catch the exact bottom—just remember the old adage: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

W: It’s only the first week of a bloody September, and BTC is already nearing the $52.15k weekly level. Sunday might be calm, with a potential bounce back to $55.9k. But watch out for Sunday evening (U.S. Eastern time) when the Asian bears wake up.
D: Friday closed lower than August 5th. This is the third time we’re testing the $52-54k range—July 5, August 5, and now September 6. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. The worrying sign: yesterday’s volume was much lower than the previous two occurrences. No need to look far; volume has been rising over the last 7 days, confirming bearish sentiment.
4h: RSI dipped below 30 at 4 PM Eastern, but since then it’s bounced back 1.5%. Looking back at July 5 and August 5, we can see a key level around $54.4k (though this doesn’t hold on the daily chart). This is the point where decisions must be made.
1h: Price action is moving sideways.

Alts relative to BTC: ETH has dropped more than BTC and other altcoins, falling to levels not seen since January 11th when the BTC ETF was approved. The argument that Layer 2 solutions diminish ETH’s "sound money" status isn’t helping. Bearish. On the bright side, APT has been trading below BTC ETF demand for 91 days and could be a good option for DCA. SUI shrugged off the recent sell-off and posted a 5.13% green candle, making it another solid contender alongside APT, as both are already below BTC ETF price levels.

Bull case: Everyone who could sell has already sold. Now, only the diamond hands remain.
Bear case: The capital allocators have finished realizing gains, and retail traders are finally waking up to the fact that the bull run has been canceled.

Fear and Greed Index: 25.97 – an all-time low for 2024 and 2023.

Prediction: A short-term rebound over the weekend, followed by further declines next week.

Opportunities: Check out weekly and 4-hour divergences in major altcoins. Are you shorting TON yet?

Mistakes: The bullish MACD divergence didn’t play out for SOLUSD, ARUSD, and AVAXUSDT . When big brother (BTC) makes a move, it doesn’t matter what the technical analysis says for altcoins.