Bitcoin - falling wedge (bullish) or descending triangle

2021年6月12日

Daily line chart (left chart) might be a falling wedge (or an odd falling channel) which is it breaks up could mean bullish.
Price is above the anchored VWAP from the previous breakout (20k level) so that's supportive of this.
It is a the top of the channel right now though and the bottom is closer to the Anchored VWAP so even an entry here is not that clear.

Daily candlesticks on the other hand (right chart) does look like a descending triangle.
This is further supported by RSI is bearish (under 30 around mid-May) and although oversold and counter-trend would be to go up, that is bearish momentum.

So that to do?
Again, always depending on your trading horizon.
But if you were to look at daily charts then I personally will wait for further confirmation.

30,000 is a key level (currently support) and below that is bearish. Next level down is far (the breakout of 20k-22k)
47,000 is also a key level (currently resistance) then 54,000 after that

At around 35-36k we are currently closer to support so the risk-reward favors bullish but...

I believe there will be plenty of opportunity and will waiting for higher probability entries (long or short).
My experience has been negative on rushed trades and trying to squeeze gains when price (or trend is messy) and I think it is right now.
So I'll be in the sideways, watching but ready for the market to give a stronger signal.
And focus on other opportunities.

2021年6月14日

交易進行

Bullish case seems to have shown itself so entering that trade.
The descending triangle (bearish) was compelling but the resolution went on the other direction could be a strong indicator of bullishness.

With that said, 47k is potential strong resistance.
So defining risk (stop loss) at 37 and target 47.
Let's see

2021年6月18日

註釋

retesting the breakout level - let's see if that line/support holds
if that breaks, might be more caution but still consider that these are broad strokes of price ranges and not exactly lines
if retest is successful (rebounds and resumes up) then that's confirmation of breakout from falling wedge or channel

2021年6月20日

註釋

Retest of breakout was deeper (lower) than expected.
That might mean that the breakout is not that strong (i.e. demand/bulls were not eager to step back in and waiting for a while).
Or could just be because of the FOMC uncertainty this week.

The rebound seems to be underway (too early) but if that holds it could consolidate, form a stronger base before resuming up or just shot back up quick. Given the lack of eager to hold the breakout level maybe the consolidation.
We will see.

2021年6月21日

交易結束：達到停損點

breakout support retest failed