What is applicable to my opinion is using LOG. Just look at the graph in LOG and it all makes sense.
I am, like most, bullisch on the long run, but for now...
I think this baby could go back all the way to the lifeline, which obviously goes up but is still somewhere sub 3k right now.
(looking at the head-shoulds, with a bit of retrace, back to the lifeline makes sense too)
Anyway, make up your own mind, but switch to LOG sometime on large timescales, things become more clear.
Have fun out there!