BESTY

Bitcoin - The story so far

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
Since the Jan 6th             swing high, bitcoin             price action has been contained within a downward parallel channel . This is the overriding structure and everything detailed below is just the story going on within it.

Price was consolidating, forming a large symmetrical triangle structure (highest broken white line converging with upper boundary of parallel downward channel ) on the 13,000 key support level . On Jan 16th, a clear downside break of both the structure and support level suggested likely further downside to the next confluent level of support below.

That level being the psychological 10,000 which held support and brought price back up to test 13,000 broken support as new resistance before once again going down to that 10,000 level. While this was happening, another symmetrical triangle consolidating structure (middle broken white line converging with broken blue line) was manifesting on the 10,000 support. On Jan 30th, a downside break of structure occurred followed by a small fractal right on 10,000 and clear downside break of that support level on Feb 1st. This suggested likely further downside potential to the next confluent levels of support below being 8000 then 6000.
* Noting that the broken blue line is even more significant now and developing as a falling wedge bullish reversal structure. However, keeping in mind that the downward parallel channel is STILL the overriding structure*

8,000 was met but did not sustain support for long. A rising wedge bearish reversal structure developed (best seen on 1H chart) on this level and was confirmed with a breakdown to the highly confluent 6,000 support. Price quickly rallied back above 8,000 followed by consolidation manifesting as an inverted head and shoulders bullish reversal structure. On Feb 14th, a clear upside break of the inverted head and shoulder neckline (lowest broken white line) and also the longer-term falling wedge structure (broken blue line) suggested likely upside to retest the upper boundary of the overriding structure that is the downward parallel channel .

And now, this is exactly where we are at the moment. Currently at the upper boundary of the channel. A potentially big moment for bitcoin             if an upside break occurs which would suggest the bear is over. If the channel holds with a downside break (solid white line) and price falls back within it, the extended confluent downside target is 3,000 where numerous levels of support would need to be broken first in order to achieve this. At the time of writing, bitcoin             is 11,000 so therefore a 3,000 target would mean a +70% drop in value. It is an ambitious target to announce and would require a significant market catalyst, however, keep in mind that it is the extended downside target based on the technical picture.
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