Before i start, for the people not following me, what happened to day was a massive short squeeze (short sellers had to close their positions), short positions were extremely high, and were forming a parabolic uptrend: this created this massive Bitcoin raise. This is not a pump due to George Soros, governments investing in Btc, Illuminatis, JP Morgan, the Cartel, the whales, ... Let's say this is a set up happening in every type of market when there are too many traders shorting at some wrong parts of the market.
If you are following me, you are possibly aware that i was waiting for a bull trap since around a week, with a target of around 8150 (higher targets could be possible). Btc reached 8090 today, so we are not at the target level yet. I am still waiting for this possible bull trap to happen : 6500$ is a psychological reversal zone, many people are believing Bitcoin has bottomed around this area which should possibly indicate that the short squeeze we had today will be followed by a bullish trend. If we are looking at the 2014 chart, we can see that when the 1 day death cross happened, a quick local sell off happened, followed by an important buy (green rectangle) and a local sell, and an important bull trap. This is where we possibly are if we use fractals, and this was enforcing some more my idea of a possible incoming bull trap since the death cross happened around the 6500$ reversal zone. The issue is that we have absolutely no proof that we are bottoming as it is impossible to know it right now (though Bitcoin bottoming is still a possibility). In 2014/2015, Btc formed higher lows and higher highs, but see what happened next when people were almost certain that Btc was bottoming :
This scenario is to be considered as a possibility, so stay alert.
Good luck to you trading in there, and watch out with the shorts and longs, it is extremely tricky with Bitcoin, and i hope you did not suffer any loss today.
評論
⋅
Nota: a smart move would have been to act like a contrarian investor. This investor would have spotted the heavily shorted Btc at a low level of price, and would have taken a long position anticipating this short squeeze. This is a high risk high reward strategy. I am not saying this is what i did as i do not give trade signals, but i give an exemple of the type of trade smart traders and institutions could have taken few days ago
評論
⋅
Watch out to Btc Rsi level
評論
⋅
Big picture : the first resistance is yet blocking Btc
評論
⋅
RSI indicated we entered a zone of possible pullback. Stay alert, as the pullback could retest the 7500 7200 7000 6800 levels
評論
⋅
As said in the previous update, we entered a zone of possible pullback, even if it's difficult to feel it in such a bullrun and fomo time 1day chart is starting to show a bearish pin bar appearing, which normally acts as a reversl signal Stay alert
評論
⋅
?
評論
⋅
When everyone is shouting for a rally start, it probably is a bull trap. When everyone is shouting for a bulltrap, it probably is a rally start. When everyone is shouting for a crash, it probably is a crash.
評論
⋅
Well. It appears this déjà vu Bull trap theory of the death cross golden cross was correct, and the structure sharing of the pattern was correct as well. I'll keep that in the archives in case future bubble are on their way. Very interesting.
Not looking for a "crash" but we are looking for a very long slow drip down that will be like Chinese water torture for the stuck longs and "day traders" .
Giovi6969
⋅
@london55555,
This is very possible to happen indeed
majic92
⋅
HI good i have same AT i think than the market is always short and than we are in bull trap (return to normal in buble spec) the capitulation can come after this bullish trade because any good news are coming and btc is still over bought by peoples, the correction of this buble haven't been finished
I think that things tend to be repeated especially in a market that seeks its next road, i see many trader that said we are out of oblique resistence but isn't correct we are always in down chanel pls checking your chart in logscale.
and to finish my opinion is that many investors are frustrated and would have bought 5k-3,5k btc, so maybe they are not going to invest in and will wait for the correction and the trend line, personally im part of these, because btc 8K $ is is held by many FOMO buyer and other FA that i will not explain here.in english.
Andbcoin
⋅
It's the same for LTC with Stochastics. I use Stoch instead.
NewYork888
⋅
Excellent.
Giovi6969
⋅
@london55555,
Thank you so much dear mystery investment fund ;-)
NewYork888
⋅
@Giorgioversace, Ha! Small very inconsequential fund I would add.
cI8DH
⋅
there is bearish divergence in 1h and 30m as well. However, it is still possible that we go line in this chart:
Giovi6969
⋅
@hkh222,
Ok thanks for sharing hkh!
gonna check this
cI8DH
⋅
@Giorgioversace, it's the price action from Feb 6k low onward. I scaled it quite a lot to fit it.