How I imagine a BTC bear move could look like

2019年8月20日

This is nothing more than a scheme that captures my current state of mind when looking at the market and which would be useful as a prism through which I would look at the price movement. I personally look at charts as a means to create a clear timestamp of someone's prevailing believes in a certain point in time, nothing more, nothing less. I don't believe in the one magical chart and you should not eighter. The market is by definition random. However, as a contrarian the more everyone in the news says buy BTC, the more I begin to put my shorts in order. Let me sum my view in just a few sentences without getting boring. I think that BTC is running on fumes after all the manipulation that happened all the way upwards, a lot of gaps were left unfilled and a lot of gaps means very little resistance when the price starts going down. On the fundamental side, I believe that the "Bakkt bitcoin futures set to launch September 23" event was already included in the price rise of BTC. I think it would be good for BTC to retrace back to the 2800-3400$ price level and fill all the gaps before continuing forward, especially before the halving. If the retracement does not occur and the gaps are not filled BTC could surge to 30-40k before coming back to the 2k level. This means that the massive bull run that everyone expects in the next 3-5 years could come way further in time. If a global crisis happens, I think that BTC would fall together with the market in the beginning, but later will skyrocket (just as gold does). Fundamentally, everyone knows there will be a crisis, now that creates a paradox - as we know, in order for the market to be in a bubble the majority must think that it is in fact not a bubble, so how would there be a crisis if everyone thinks there is going to be one? I think, firstly that eighter if it happens in 2020-2021 it's not going to be as severe as the one in 2008, or if in the next years the US starts a new major conflict (with Iran for example) they could postpone a major crisis with 3-4years because of the massive flow of resources such an event would force to circulate. Yes, that is enough for one post I think.