olivernash
教育

Exactly how I decided to bail before the fall.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特幣 / 美元
To clarify an earlier post, I thought I would explain the signs that told me to sell my coins just before the beginning of the recent fall, in the hopes that it might help someone at some point in the future if they see something similar. It also helps me to write my thoughts down.

A dramatic price rise can be seen on the chart as the popularity of cryptocurrencies caught the imagination of the masses. Since supply is relatively limited (new coins only appear through mining and the release of brand new types of coin), then as demand shot up, so did the price. It reached a point of correction (a peak), from where it fell hard until it found/formed a level of support. It bounced up from that, but fell down again, temporarily breaking its support (a spring before an upthrust). The rise of the upthrust found, and established, a level of resistance, then fell back down to the same, previous, level of support. At this point a triangular consolidation is becoming apparent, one with fast falling highs and angles pointing downward.

Then the price bounces off the support of the bottom triangle again, but this time it is different because two things have just happened: The MACD has made it clear that the sellers are NOT exhausted, but that the buyers ARE exhausted. So, this rise is likely to fail because of the weak bulls, then fall hard because of the strong bears (becoming a powerful test of the support).

The consolidation pattern was going to breakout at some point, because as the amplitude of the price range narrows (the highs and lows get closer as we move toward the point of the triangle) pressure builds in the volatility-loving World of cryptocurrency. The signs were that a breakout would be downwards, and made a more likely occurrence by the evidence of the strong bears and weak bulls in the preceding MACD cycle. Though it could have carried trading on within the triangle, or even had a breakout upwards. That time of the bulls buying seemed like a good time to sell and get out.

The fall that followed began a series of consolidation triangles, each pushing the price down further; I am not a fan of shorting, so the rises within these triangles were good to ride (charts can be seen in some of my other posts).

I hope someone finds this useful. Thanks for reading.

Best wishes and good luck to you all.


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