BTC coming down to re-visit *local 61.8% Fib level.

2020年3月28日

Also pierced below the ascending channel while going sideways since 24th Mar '20.
If the bearish scenario doesn't play through more strongly and violently soon, that's a window for the bulls to take over after the Sunday candle closes.

(a) If that holds, establishing the next high low, expects a bounce to set a new higher high.
(b) If that fails, expect it to drop further down to 38.2%.

Speculatively, I'm biased towards the bullish scenario since the dip is occurring during a weekend, if and only if scenario (a) holds till Monday.

Momentum Analysis:



See also previous analysis.
Note the Fibs-levels there was drawn as the Fib-retrace from the top to the bottom of the SPX-correlated dump on 12th Mar '20.

2020年3月28日

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Another reason to be slightly more bullish than bearish if and only if 61.8% Fib holds is that the ascending channel is now broken, and the massive bear flag will be invalidated if price manages to hold steady.

2020年3月28日

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LIVIDITIUM Dynamic Channels analysis (w/ BTC Daily Chart Optimised Indicators set):

2020年3月28日

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Note: The above longer time frame fractal overlay is more speculative.
Trading wise -- still need to take things a step at a time..

2020年3月28日

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Redrawing the channel:

2020年3月28日

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Hidden Bullish Divergence

2020年3月29日

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Another weekend daily chart observation to throw into the mix.
+ Green volumes substantially larger than red candles.
+ Volume tappers off as price falls.

2020年3月29日

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Bearish scenario of my analysis at play for BTCUSD.
Setting stop-loss at slightly below 61.8% Fib (~5888 USD).

Bolingerband narrowing on the daily, massive move incoming.

Also, BTC, 2D death cross incoming. Stochs overbought, and flipping into a downwards trajectory now.

2020年3月30日

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2020年3月30日

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Daily chart: Back up above 21 Daily EMA (7hrs to candle close), supported by 61.8% Fib retrace level as drawn from the local low to local high *after the dip*.

2020年3月30日

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BTC probably to hit 6960 USD.
However longer-term still looking very bearish; unless BTC manages to break out higher to at least 7166 USD, and closes above 6982 USD on the daily chart.

2020年3月30日

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Note:
Stop loss earlier triggered and sold off 30% of my small BTC trading account holdings. :(
Bought back in immediately when BTC pierced above 6143 again
6151 USD when "PRISM Signals" triggered a buy on the 3 hrly.
CYBER ENSEMBLE also registered a buy on the 3hrly earlier, strengthening the case for a bullish short-term bias.

Actually, if BTC can pierce above the orange 200 SMA on the 3 hrly @ 6580 USD, then I am all in with the rest of the USDT from BTC that I had previously cost-average sold off at ca. 9636 USD when the price dipped below the orange 200 SMA.

2020年3月30日

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Zooming out view of the tidied up 3hrly chart:
Follow the price vs. the orange 200 SMA line.