BTC NOVEMBER IDEA 2017-10-31
已更新
This is how I think BTC will play out for the rest of November.
Can see that we have been in this price channel since the first ATH on this bull run at 5950, followed by the ATH at 6450. In each instance, each pattern pans out to be a rising wedge, followed by yet another rising wedge. Considering where our 3k Support Trend line is, in conjunction with the price action, I think after this next ATH, we will retrace back to ~$6200 +/- 1%, go into another consolidation phase, and then continue making runs up higher. Ultimately, these trend lines point to 11/12-11/16 (essentially the S2X Fork Date) being the ATH, which should then put us at the top of the overall price channel we have been in for 9 months. At that point, we should expect a sharp correction downwards, similar to what we've seen historically.
A few things to note:
If this were to play out perfectly, then ~5000-5200 would be the next correction level.
However, I think there is a strong possibility that the S2X fork is what "breaks" the price channel we've been in for so long, with a market correction to ~4000 being well within the realm of possibilities.
Furthermore, I could also see this most recent pump to new ATH's stagger up to ~7k levels here shortly, and then proceed to go into a mid-cycle correction, driving the price down lower, allowing institutional traders to acquire BTC at discounted prices leading up to the fork.
With that said, this is merely a playbook of what I will be looking out for. As soon as something breaks this pattern, it's back to the drawing boards.
Can see that we have been in this price channel since the first ATH on this bull run at 5950, followed by the ATH at 6450. In each instance, each pattern pans out to be a rising wedge, followed by yet another rising wedge. Considering where our 3k Support Trend line is, in conjunction with the price action, I think after this next ATH, we will retrace back to ~$6200 +/- 1%, go into another consolidation phase, and then continue making runs up higher. Ultimately, these trend lines point to 11/12-11/16 (essentially the S2X Fork Date) being the ATH, which should then put us at the top of the overall price channel we have been in for 9 months. At that point, we should expect a sharp correction downwards, similar to what we've seen historically.
A few things to note:
If this were to play out perfectly, then ~5000-5200 would be the next correction level.
However, I think there is a strong possibility that the S2X fork is what "breaks" the price channel we've been in for so long, with a market correction to ~4000 being well within the realm of possibilities.
Furthermore, I could also see this most recent pump to new ATH's stagger up to ~7k levels here shortly, and then proceed to go into a mid-cycle correction, driving the price down lower, allowing institutional traders to acquire BTC at discounted prices leading up to the fork.
With that said, this is merely a playbook of what I will be looking out for. As soon as something breaks this pattern, it's back to the drawing boards.
註釋
Update:Seeing that the monthly candle just closed - things seem eerily similar to that of August close. There is a strong possibility the 6580-6660 levels could be a top, with a steep correction following. My only problem with this is that it could result in a dump leading up to S2X.
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