Bitcoin Selling Off! And Other Irrelevant Bearish Banter.

2020年5月10日

Bitcoin retraces out of the 9564 to 10,168 resistance zone, but no reason to over react. The resistance zone that has been on my charts for months is a location that favors such a move, and is why we have been reducing our risk by taking partial profits at predetermined targets (8K and 9750). The mistake to avoid here is to get confused by all the bearish hype that will follow (especially the ones who are focused on smaller time frames). The structure of the broader trend is still bullish and in this video I will explain why.

When there is a retrace within a bullish trend, what should you be doing? Looking for buying opportunities. Although Bitcoin has yet to produce a new buy signal, we view this as a chance to add back to our long from 5750 (since we now only have 1/3 of the position left) Where are the inflection points? 8500 which was a previous resistance and 7695 which is the key support for the current broader bullish structure. AS LONG AS 7695 is not compromised, Bitcoin is likely to reverse higher, and at least attempt to take out the 10,200 area high. This may take a week or so to play out, but BASED on the price structure and price action, this is the higher probability scenario.

What needs to change in order for our outlook to go back to neutral from bullish? IF price takes out 7695 and closes lower. That is the evidence required by our long only swing trade strategy to adjust our expectations. Like I remind our followers regularly, you can't go into this with any kind of opinion, especially for short term timing. The market tells us what to think, and we simply listen to it, not "experts", news, or other obsolete information. What can the next buying opportunity look like? A failed low off of the 8K area would be a very compelling scenario for us to add to our long. Overall, this move does not qualify for a trend change on the TIME FRAME we evaluate. Momentum may be bearish, but that is not the same as the trend. Keeping these variables as separate and distinct pieces of information will help you to better anticipate coming opportunities.