Weak Pullback, Bears in Control | Will the $100K Zone Hold?

BTCUSD – Weak Pullback, Bears in Control | Will the $100K Zone Hold?
🌍 Macro & Fundamental Outlook
Bitcoin continues to face downside pressure after failing to hold above the key $108K resistance. Several macro factors are influencing sentiment:

📉 US bond yields are rising again, as markets expect the Fed to delay rate cuts. This adds pressure on risk assets like BTC.

🪙 Bitcoin Spot ETF inflows remain positive, but are currently not strong enough to counter short-term selling pressure.

💵 The DXY (US Dollar Index) is recovering, as investors flee to USD amid geopolitical volatility in the Middle East.

📊 Institutional liquidity is thinning across exchanges, adding to intraday volatility.

📉 Technical Analysis – H1 Chart
🔹 Trend Structure:
BTC is now firmly in a short-term downtrend, trading below the descending trendline and all key moving averages (EMA 34, 89, 200).

Rejection from every pullback suggests that sellers are still in control.

🔹 Key Price Zones:
Bearish FVG Resistance: 106,096 – 107,004

First Support Zone: 102,821

Major Support Zone: 101,539 → 100,419

A clean break below 100K could open the door to 98,000 and below

🔹 Momentum:
RSI is neutral, hovering around the mid-40s without strong divergence signals.

Selling volume is increasing but not yet explosive — indicating the market may be awaiting a macro catalyst.

🧠 Market Sentiment
Traders are currently in “wait-and-see” mode, eyeing the next round of macroeconomic data and potential Fed commentary.

Short-term profit-taking is dominant after last week’s sharp rally.

Overall sentiment: Bearish short-term – Neutral mid-term – Bullish long-term

🎯 Trade Setup Ideas
🔻 SELL if price retests FVG and gets rejected
Entry: 106,000 – 107,000
Stop-Loss: 107,500
Targets: 102,821 → 101,539 → 100,419

🔹 BUY if price reacts strongly from 100,419 – 101,500
Entry: 100,500 – 100,800
Stop-Loss: 99,800
Targets: 102,800 → 104,400 → 106,000

Preference is given to selling the rally in the short term. Buying should only be considered on confirmed reversal signals at key support.

✅ Conclusion
BTCUSD is currently in a corrective phase, with bears maintaining control. The key level to watch is the $100,419 support zone, which may determine whether Bitcoin maintains its medium-term bullish structure or breaks further. Discipline and confirmation are crucial in this volatile environment.

📌 Strategy Focus: Look to sell rallies toward resistance; buy only on confirmed bounce from strong support zones.