Is this like 2013's crash?

2018年1月17日

<full disclaimer, I am an engineer accustomed to analyzing data, but new to forex, so the following may be entertaining, brilliant, or stupid - you tell me>

Looking at the Dec 2013 bubble pop, I recall the hype, the flood of capital, the Mt Gox & government rumblings, and the crash. Applying a fibonacci retracement and mean trend to it:



Now here we are again with hype, flood of capital, government rumblings, and another crash. While the market *is* different in many ways, such as futures, professional investors, another level of magnitude of hype, altcoins, and more, doesn't the market still need to go through the corrective oscillations as they did back in 2013? If so, it would seem we are looking at around the $5,000 level in the next month or two and not regaining the mean trend for a year+ ?



Or will the professionals manipulate the market in ways that are not predictable by this sort of historical comparison? Or to ask it another way, which is stronger, history or man?

2018年1月25日

註釋

Update for Jan 24 (+1 week from above) and it is still following my comparison to 2013. I'm not happy about it, but the data doesn't care what I think so far....

2018年2月1日

註釋

Update for +2 weeks: continuing to act predictably per the same regression as 2013. Groan. This looks like the next dip to 6900 will be mid-April, meaning we have a looooooot more winter ahead of us folks.