BTCUSD - Bitcoin shaking out the weak, or about to crumble?

2017年6月27日

With BTC teetering on a large trendline lately, it is easy to think this movement is completed and the market is about to become bearish. However, we are over a month away from Segwit, and all signals still look OK on all timeframes. Our RSI trend looks touchy, but still healthy. The macro trendline of this entire bull run has been respected multiple times now.

Should we break 2200 and the monthly pivot though, the next clear target is 1800. This is where I will be picking up an additional BTC. If it somehow falls through that, 1600 is next support line. And finally if this market completely tumbles, 1200 is the clear support line that I simply cannot imagine being broken. If I'm 90% sure 1600-1800 will hold, I am damn near 100% that 1200 will.

With that being said though, until we clear August 1st with Segwit, this market has no reason to reverse to bearish. I can see a large dump after Segwit similar to LTC. That would make sense. But this is such a great opportunity to snake in a ton of weak money before August 1st and dump on them after it's activated due to dumb money flooding in.

But hey, predicting markets is impossible so who knows. All in all I feel good, but keeping an eye on 2200 on Finex/GDAX is critical. Staying above 2400 for a day or two should point towards a moderate recovery.